Lessons from a 'Predictive History'

Abstract

This study presents a history of videotex and online services as seen through predictions and forecasts made at different stages. It presents the primarily optimistic expectations for what was then a 'new technology' created by merging the television, telephone, and the computer. In the USA, videotex is often perceived as a major market failure that should have been easy to foresee. However, success was constrained by the centralised-services architecture and applications of the time, and by undue belief in the revolutionary potential of the technology. A decentralised approach, both in technology and in applications, enabled the success of the World Wide Web - and proved many early predictors to be prescient about applications that would be popular on an interactive network.