Short- and Long-Term Effects of World Exposition 1986 on US Demand for British Columbia Tourism

Abstract

This study is an attempt to evaluate the short- and long-term economic effects of World Exposition 1986 on US demand for British Columbia tourism by integrating Box-Jenkins time series analysis with the theory of consumer demand. The number of more-than-one-day US visitors to British Columbia is used as the measure of demand. Intervention and transfer function models are employed for the estimates which are made separately for US visitors arriving by car, automobile and by plane. The conclusions drawn are that during the six months of Expo 86, an additional 1.58 million more-than-one-day US visitors were attracted to British Columbia (1.41 million by automobile and 0.17 million by aeroplane). The long-term or post-Expo effects of Expo 86 are found to be very large (probably larger in total than the short-term economic benefits). These long-term economic benefits result from the post-Expo visitors who have returned to British Columbia as a result of the world-wide exposure of the Vancouver area by the fair. We have considered only more-than-one-day US visitors to Expo 86 (only part of all visitors to the fair) and only the 1987–93 post-Expo time period, and with that limited visitor group, and that limited time period, we still find long-term economic benefits of $428.9 million (about half the estimated total short-term economic benefits). These estimates take account of the effects of changes in the US–Canada foreign exchange rate, the US travel price index, the BC travel price index and US personal disposable income over the 1981–93 period.