Rethinking the environmental Kuznets curve for tourism: Evidence from instrumental variable quantile regression

Abstract

This study re-examines the tourism–environment relationship by extending the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework to assess whether environmental gains linked to tourism are sustained or eventually reversed. Using an IVQR approach, the analysis evaluates how tourism, economic growth, income inequality, and trade openness affect ecological footprint and carbon emissions across high-, middle-, and low-income countries. The results demonstrate substantial heterogeneity across the distribution of environmental pressure and by income level. Low-income economies display an N-shaped pattern in which initial improvements in environmental quality eventually give way to renewed deterioration as tourism intensifies. This relinking pattern likely reflects growing demand for energy-intensive transportation and large-scale infrastructure that can outweigh the benefits of technological improvements or existing regulatory measures. High-income economies show weaker or negligible effects at upper quantiles. Overall, the findings suggest that tourism-driven growth does not guarantee sustained environmental improvement, particularly in economies with limited regulatory and technological capacity.