Quakes,floods,and tourists: A synthetic difference-in-differences approach for Italy

Abstract

“Natural” disasters can have profound and far-reaching effects across multiple social and economic sectors, with the tourism industry being particularly vulnerable to their disruptive consequences. This study examines the impact of five major disasters, three earthquakes and two floods, that struck Italy between 2009 and 2016. Using the Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) method, we estimate their effects on disaggregated tourism indicators over the period 2004–2019. The analysis leverages NUTS-3 level tourism data from ISTAT, available at both annual and monthly frequencies, and disaggregated by domestic and international tourists. Our findings reveal substantial heterogeneity in tourism responses, driven not by the type of hazard per se, but by the persistence and spatial relevance of the shock. While floods generally result in limited and short-lived impacts, earthquakes can lead to long-term disruptions, with some events apparently producing structural breaks in local tourism trajectories.