Rural tourism has become a key instrument for promoting economic development in rural areas. In response, the central government of China launched the National Rural Tourism Key Villages (LRTV) policy in 2019, designating 320 villages with high tourism potential to receive financial support, talent training, and destination planning to boost rural revitalization. This study employs the synthetic control method from 2005 to 2021 to assess the policy’s economic effects. Results show that treated villages experienced, on average, a 12.45% increase in local GDP relative to their synthetic counterparts. This result suggests that state-led tourism policies can promote economic growth in rural areas with weak tourism market mechanisms. The policy’s effectiveness also varies by economic conditions, population density, and tourism type. This study fills a gap by providing evidence on rural tourism effectiveness in China with implications for other developing economies.
AbadieA (2021) Using synthetic controls: feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects. Journal of Economic Literature59(2): 391–425.
2.
AbadieAGardeazabalJ (2003) The economic costs of conflict: a case study of the Basque Country. The American Economic Review93(1): 113–132.
3.
AbadieADiamondAHainmuellerJ (2010) Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program. Journal of the American Statistical Association105(490): 493–505.
4.
AbadieADiamondAHainmuellerJ (2015) Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. American Journal of Political Science59(2): 495–510.
5.
AgiomirgianakisGSerenisDTsounisN (2017) Effective timing of tourism policy: the case of Singapore. Economic Modelling60: 29–38.
6.
AragieEBaliéJ (2021) Public spending on agricultural productivity and rural commercialization: a comparison of impacts using an economy‐wide approach. Development Policy Review39: O21–O41.
7.
ArkhangelskyDAtheySHirshbergDA, et al. (2021) Synthetic difference-in-differences. The American Economic Review111(12): 4088–4118.
8.
BayarsaikhanTKimMHGimTHT (2025) Outdoor activity and walking for leisure in the COVID-19 era: their correlates and mutual relationship. Journal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering24(4): 3085–3096.
9.
BooSBusserJA (2006) The hierarchical influence of visitor characteristics on tourism destination images. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing19(4): 55–67.
10.
BrandthBHaugenMS (2011) Farm diversification into tourism – implications for social identity?Journal of Rural Studies27(1): 35–44.
11.
BrueckCLosackerSLiefnerI (2025) China’s digital and green (twin) transition: insights from national and regional innovation policies. Regional Studies59(1): 2384411.
12.
CaleroCTurnerLW (2020) Regional economic development and tourism: a literature review to highlight future directions for regional tourism research. Tourism Economics26(1): 3–26.
13.
ChenMLongY (2024) Empowering rural revitalization: unleashing the potential of e-commerce for sustainable industrial integration. Journal of the Knowledge Economy15(4): 18813–18831.
14.
ChristopherW (1998) In the Stream of History: Shaping Foreign Policy for a New Era. Stanford University Press.
15.
DaiBLiPMaX (2022) On the situation, momentum and task of high-quality development of tourism. Journal of Central China Normal University (Natural Science Edition)56(1): 1–8, (in Chinese).
16.
DangPRenLLiJ (2024) Does rural tourism reduce relative poverty? Evidence from household surveys in Western China. Tourism Economics30(2): 498–521.
17.
DilanchievATaktakishviliT (2021) Macroeconomic determinants of household consumptions in Georgia. Annals of Financial Economics16(4): 2150020.
18.
DwyerLEdwardsDMistilisN, et al. (2009) Destination and enterprise management for a tourism future. Tourism Management30(1): 63–74.
19.
EstolJFontX (2016) European tourism policy: its evolution and structure. Tourism Management52: 230–241.
20.
FaberBGaubertC (2019) Tourism and economic development: evidence from Mexico’s coastline. The American Economic Review109(6): 2245–2293.
21.
FanXLuJQiuM, et al. (2023) Changes in travel behaviors and intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery period: a case study of China. Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism41: 100522.
22.
FleischerATchetchikA (2005) Does rural tourism benefit from agriculture?Tourism Management26(4): 493–501.
23.
FrederickM (1993) Rural tourism and economic development. Economic Development Quarterly7(2): 215–224.
24.
GaoJWuB (2017) Revitalizing traditional villages through rural tourism: a case study of Yuanjia Village, Shaanxi Province, China. Tourism Management63: 223–233.
25.
Geoffrey DelademTXiaoZSiueiaTT, et al. (2021) Developing sustainable tourism through public-private partnership to alleviate poverty in Ghana. Tourist Studies21(2): 317–343.
26.
GerasymchukNPashchenkoOZharikovaO (2023) Incomes and expenses of the rural population and their impact on the standard of living. Economics and Business Management4(14): 32–53.
27.
GöbelC (2011) Uneven policy implementation in rural China. The China Journal65(65): 53–76.
28.
GursoyDChiCGDyerP (2010) Locals’ attitudes toward mass and alternative tourism: the case of Sunshine Coast, Australia. Journal of Travel Research49(3): 381–394.
29.
HwangJLeeS (2015) The effect of the rural tourism policy on non-farm income in South Korea. Tourism Management46: 501–513.
30.
HyytiäNKolaJ (2013) Tourism policy as a tool for rural development. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy35(4): 708–730.
31.
JiaoXLiGQiuRT, et al. (2025) Analyzing destination resilience from a spatiotemporal perspective. Journal of Travel Research64(5): 1186–1205.
32.
KachniewskaMA (2015) Tourism development as a determinant of quality of life in rural areas. Worldwide Hospitality and Tourism Themes7(5): 500–515.
33.
KastenholzE (2004) ‘Management of demand’ as a tool in sustainable tourist destination development. Journal of Sustainable Tourism12(5): 388–408.
34.
KaulAKlößnerSPfeiferG, et al. (2022) Standard synthetic control methods: the case of using all preintervention outcomes together with covariates. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics40(3): 1362–1376.
35.
KimHKimEJ (2021) Tourism as a key for regional revitalization? A quantitative evaluation of tourism zone development in Japan. Sustainability13(13): 7478.
36.
KingGZengL (2006) The dangers of extreme counterfactuals. Political Analysis14(2): 131–159.
37.
KreifNGrieveRHangartnerD, et al. (2016) Examination of the synthetic control method for evaluating health policies with multiple treated units. Health Economics25(12): 1514–1528.
38.
KytziaSWalzAWegmannM (2011) How can tourism use land more efficiently? A model-based approach to land-use efficiency for tourist destinations. Tourism Management32(3): 629–640.
39.
LaneB (2005) Sustainable rural tourism strategies: a tool for development and conservation. Revista Interamericana de Ambiente y Turismo (RIAT)1(1): 12–18.
40.
LaneBKastenholzE (2015) Rural tourism: the evolution of practice and research approaches – towards a new generation concept?Journal of Sustainable Tourism23(8–9): 1133–1156.
41.
LeeTH (2013) Influence analysis of community resident support for sustainable tourism development. Tourism Management34: 37–46.
42.
LiGSongHWittSF (2005) Recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting. Journal of Travel Research44(1): 82–99.
43.
LiuCDouXLiJ, et al. (2020) Analyzing government role in rural tourism development: an empirical investigation from China. Journal of Rural Studies79: 177–188.
44.
LogarI (2010) Sustainable tourism management in Crikvenica, Croatia: an assessment of policy instruments. Tourism Management31(1): 125–135.
45.
LuoCQiangWLeeHF (2023) Does the low-carbon city pilot policy work in China? A company-level analysis based on the PSM-DID model. Journal of Environmental Management337: 117725.
46.
MaXSuW (2024) Local government intervention in tourism-driven rural gentrification: types and interpretative framework. Tourism Management100: 104828.
47.
MaBChenXMaK, et al. (2020) Spatial distribution, type structure, and influencing factors of key rural tourism villages in China. Economic Geography40(7): 190–199, (in Chinese).
48.
MalikMASShahSAZamanK (2016) Tourism in Austria: biodiversity, environmental sustainability, and growth issues. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International23(23): 24178–24194.
49.
MathewsHG (1975) International tourism and political science research. Annals of Tourism Research2(4): 195–203.
50.
MikulićJVizekMStojčićN, et al. (2021) The effect of tourism activity on housing affordability. Annals of Tourism Research90: 103264.
51.
NunkooRRamkissoonH (2011) Developing a community support model for tourism. Annals of Tourism Research38(3): 964–988.
52.
OECD (2010) Regional Development Policies in OECD Countries. OECD Regional Development Studies. OECD Publishing.
53.
PechlanerHHedorferPTödterN (2008) European destination management: challenges for product and brand management. In: ConradyRBuckM (eds). Trends and Issues in Global Tourism 2008. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer, 109–120.
54.
PeypochNSongYTanR, et al. (2024) Tourism efficiency and quality of life in Chinese cities. International Journal of Tourism Cities10(4): 1304–1317.
55.
RitchieJBCrouchGI (2003) The Competitive Destination: A Sustainable Tourism Perspective. CAB International.
56.
SalvatoreRChiodoEFantiniA (2018) Tourism transition in peripheral rural areas: theories, issues and strategies. Annals of Tourism Research68: 41–51.
57.
Sen-CroweBSutherlandMMcKenneyM, et al. (2021) A closer look into global hospital beds capacity and resource shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Surgical Research260: 56–63.
58.
ShresthaRKSteinTVClarkJ (2007) Valuing nature-based recreation in public natural areas of the Apalachicola river region, Florida. Journal of Environmental Management85(4): 977–985.
59.
SunPHuangSYapG, et al. (2025) Pathways to prosperity: how tourism industry training reduces poverty. Tourism Economics13548166251345990.
60.
WalheerBZhangL (2022) Tourism productivity indicators in a multiactivity framework. Tourism Analysis27(2): 233–236.
61.
WalkerTRyanJKelleyT (2010) Impact assessment of policy-oriented international agricultural research: evidence and insights from case studies. World Development38(10): 1453–1461.
62.
WangSJSunJX (2022) Universal path or invisible threshold? exogenous factors in different types of rural tourism development paths. Journal of Natural Resources37(3): 662–680.
63.
WenXYangXLiuW (2018) Research on rural tourism consumers: concepts, group characteristics, and behavioral processes. Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University12(1): 74–81, (in Chinese).
64.
YangQLiJTangY (2022) The dilemma of the great development of rural tourism from the sustainable environment perspective. Journal of Environmental and Public Health2022(1): 7195813.
65.
YangYZhangLWuL, et al. (2023) Does distance still matter? Moderating effects of distance measures on the relationship between pandemic severity and bilateral tourism demand. Journal of Travel Research62(3): 610–625.
66.
YangJXuKChenB (2024) Theoretical mechanisms and empirical tests of rural revitalization promoting common prosperity. Statistics & Decisions40(1): 69–74, (in Chinese).
67.
YoonYGursoyDChenJS (2001) Validating a tourism development theory with structural equation modeling. Tourism Management22(4): 363–372.
68.
ZasadaIPiorrA (2015) The role of local framework conditions for the adoption of rural development policy: an example of diversification, tourism development and village renewal in Brandenburg, Germany. Ecological Indicators59: 82–93.
69.
ZhangXBaoJ (2009) Tourism development and rural transformation: the “origin–dynamic” hypothesis. Tourism Tribune24(6): 19–24, (in Chinese).
70.
ZhaoLXiaX (2020) Tourism and poverty reduction: empirical evidence from China. Tourism Economics26(2): 233–256.
71.
ZhuXQiaoJ (2020) Research on sustainable development of rural tourism communities: an analysis based on the triad dialectic perspective of spatial production theory. Economic Geography40(8): 153–164, (in Chinese).
72.
ZhuHLiuYLuoY, et al. (2022) Dynamic technical performance measurement in rural tourism: an empirical study from China. Journal of Global Information Management30(1): 1–19.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
