Tourism shocks and gender unemployment dynamics: Unraveling the gender gap in Macau’s labor market

Abstract

This study examines how tourism-related disturbances impact gender-specific labor market outcomes, addressing a gap in the literature that largely overlooks the role played by cyclical dynamics. Employing Macau’s quarterly data over the period 2002–2024, we uncover the connection between the cyclical patterns of inbound tourism and the gender gap based on a structural vector autoregression model with recursive identification restrictions. Our findings reveal that surges in inbound tourism stimulate real GDP growth, raise inflation, and boost labor market activity, aligning with enhanced aggregate demand. Notably, lower aggregate unemployment initially reduces female unemployment faster than male unemployment, which declines more steadily over time. With rising inbound tourism, labor force participation grows in the medium term, with men re-entering the workforce more quickly than women post-boom. Robustness checks confirm these results, and policy implications are discussed.