Understanding the factors that shape the data-generating process of visitor flows is crucial for evaluating the past, present, and future dynamics of this vital economic activity. This study employs the SARIMAX approach to analyse the determinants of inbound international tourism demand in Uruguay, using quarterly data from 1996 to 2019. The research identifies key factors such as national and relative prices, as well as economic performance, that influence visitors’ inflows. The results indicate that stochastic shocks accumulate over time, affecting future outcomes. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in promoting international and domestic tourism.
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