This research explores the effects of High Tide alerts on hotel prices in Venice, a city that is vulnerable to the impacts of extreme climate events due to its fragile ecosystem and a long history of floods in the city center. By analyzing and combining price data from Booking.com with publicly available information on tides and weather, this study uses regression discontinuity design to test for changes in hotel prices when tide levels reach a critical threshold. The results offer insights into the sensitivity of hotel prices to weather alerts and provide valuable information on the potential impact of climate change on Venice’s tourism-driven economy, with implications for the cost–benefit analysis of activating protective barriers for lagoon protection.
ArabadzhyanAFiginiPGarcíaC, et al. (2021a) Climate change, coastal tourism, and impact chains - a literature review. Current Issues in Tourism24(16): 2233–2268.
3.
ArabadzhyanAFiginiPViciL (2021b) Measuring destination image: a novel approach based on visual data mining. A methodological proposal and an application to European islands. Journal of Destination Marketing and Management20: 100611.
4.
AshenfelterO (2008) Predicting the quality and prices of Bordeaux wine. The Economic Journal118(529): F174–F184.
5.
Baños PinoJBoto-GarcíaDValleED, et al. (2022) Is visitors’ expenditure at destination influenced by weather conditions?Current Issues in Tourism26: 1554–1572. DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2022.2058468
6.
BeckenS (2012) Measuring the effect of weather on tourism: a destination- and activity-based analysis. Journal of Travel Research52(2): 156–167.
7.
BeckenSWilsonJ (2013) The impacts of weather on tourist travel. Tourism Geographies15(4): 620–639.
8.
BernsteinAGustafsonMTLewisR (2019) Disaster on the horizon: the price effect of sea level rise. Journal of Financial Economics134(2): 253–272.
9.
BlenginiIHeoCY (2020) How do hotels adapt their pricing strategies to macroeconomic factors?International Journal of Hospitality Management88: 102522.
10.
BrandesLDoverY (2022) Offline context affects online reviews: the effect of post-consumption weather. Journal of Consumer Research49(4): 595–615.
CalonicoSCattaneoMDFarrellMH, et al. (2017) Rdrobust: software for regression-discontinuity designs. The Stata Journal: Promoting communications on statistics and Stata17(2): 372–404.
13.
CalonicoSCattaneoMDFarrellMH (2020) Optimal bandwidth choice for robust bias-corrected inference in regression discontinuity designs. The Econometrics Journal23: 192–210.
14.
CaporinMFontiniF (2016) Damages evaluation, periodic floods, and local sea level rise: the case of Venice, Italy. In: RamiahVGregoriouGN (eds), Handbook of Environmental and Sustainable Finance. San Diego: Academic Press, pp. 93–110.
15.
CastellettoNFerronatoMGambolatiG, et al. (2008) Can venice be raised by pumping water underground? A pilot project to help decide. Water Resources Research44(1).
16.
ChangJSKimDJ (2013) Hedonic estimates of rail noise in seoul. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment19: 1–4.
17.
ComerlatiAFerronatoMGambolatiG, et al. (2004) Saving venice by seawater. Journal of Geophysical Research109(F3): F03006.
DellMJonesBOlkenBA (2014) What do we learn from the weather? The new climate-economy literature. Journal of Economic Literature52(3): 740–798.
21.
DengTHuYMaM (2019) Regional policy and tourism: a quasi-natural experiment. Annals of Tourism Research74: 1–16.
22.
DengTZhaoWHuY (2022) Retirement and household tourism consumption—a case study in China. Tourism Economics: 135481662210901. DOI: 10.1177/13548166221090170
23.
Denizci GuilletBChuAMC (2021) Managing hotel revenue amid the COVID-19 crisis. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management33(2): 604–627.
EspinetJMSaezMCoendersG, et al. (2003) Effect on prices of the attributes of holiday hotels: a hedonic prices approach. Tourism Economics9(2): 165–177.
28.
FerrarinCLionelloPOrlićM, et al. (2022) Venice as a paradigm of coastal flooding under multiple compound drivers. Scientific Reports12(1): 5754.
29.
FiginiPCicognaniSZiruliaL (2022) Booking in the rain: testing the impact of public information on prices. Italian Economic Journal. DOI: 10.1007/s40797-022-00199-y
30.
FleischerA (2012) A room with a view—a valuation of the mediterranean sea view. Tourism Management33(3): 598–602.
31.
FontiniFUmgiesserGVerganoL (2010) The role of ambiguity in the evaluation of the net benefits of the MOSE system in the Venice lagoon. Ecological Economics69(10): 1964–1972.
32.
Garrido-MorenoAGarcía-MoralesVJMartín-RojasR (2021) Going beyond the curve: strategic measures to recover hotel activity in times of COVID-19. International Journal of Hospitality Management96: 102928.
33.
GehrelsSBlanarO (2013) How economic crisis affects revenue management: the case of the Prague Hilton hotels. Research in Hospitality Management2(1–2): 9–15.
34.
GelmanAImbensG (2019) Why high-order polynomials should not be used in regression discontinuity designs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics37(3): 447–456.
35.
GiousmpasoglouCMarinakouEZopiatisA (2021) Hospitality managers in turbulent times: the COVID-19 crisis. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management33(4): 1297–1318.
36.
GuizzardiAMarianiMMStacchiniA (2022) A temporal construal theory explanation of the price-quality relationship in online dynamic pricing. Journal of Business Research146: 32–44.
37.
HaoFXiaoQChonK (2020) COVID-19 and China’s hotel industry: impacts, a disaster management framework, and post-pandemic agenda. International Journal of Hospitality Management90: 102636.
38.
HeinenAKhadanJStroblE (2018) The price impact of extreme weather in developing countries. The Economic Journal129(619): 1327–1342.
39.
HirshleiferDShumwayT (2003) Good day sunshine: Stock returns and the weather. The Journal of Finance58(3): 1009–1032.
40.
HübnerAGösslingS (2012) Tourist perceptions of extreme weather events in Martinique. Journal of Destination Marketing and Management1: 47–55.
41.
ImbensGWLemieuxT (2008) Regression discontinuity designs: a guide to practice. Journal of Econometrics142(2): 615–635.
42.
JaputraASitumorangR (2021) The repercussions and challenges of COVID-19 in the hotel industry: potential strategies from a case study of Indonesia. International Journal of Hospitality Management95: 102890.
43.
JeuringJ (2017) Weather perceptions, holiday satisfaction and perceived attractiveness of domestic vacationing in The Netherlands. Tourism Management61: 70–81.
44.
JeuringJPetersK (2013) The influence of the weather on tourist experiences: analyzing travel blog narratives. Journal of Vacation Marketing19(3): 209–219.
45.
KimMRoehlWLeeSK (2019) Effect of hotels’ price discounts on performance recovery after a crisis. International Journal of Hospitality Management83: 74–82.
46.
KlimstraTFrijnsTKeijsersL, et al. (2011) Come rain or come shine: individual differences in how weather affects mood. Emotion11(6): 1495–1499.
47.
KosterHRvan OmmerenJVolkhausenN (2021) Short-term rentals and the housing market: quasi-experimental evidence from Airbnb in Los Angeles. Journal of Urban Economics124: 103356.
48.
LatinopoulosD (2018) Using a spatial hedonic analysis to evaluate the effect of sea view on hotel prices. Tourism Management65: 87–99.
49.
LeoniVFiginiPNilssonJOW (2020) It’s not all about price. the determinants of occupancy rates in peer-to-peer accommodation: a methodological contribution. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management32(4): 1693–1711.
50.
LionelloPNichollsRJUmgiesserG, et al. (2021) Venice flooding and sea level: past evolution, present issues, and future projections (introduction to the special issue). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences21(8): 2633–2641.
51.
LodiCMarinGModicaM (2023) The public finance response to floods of local governments in Italy. Journal of Environmental Management332: 117352.
52.
MasieroLVigliaGNieto-GarciaM (2020) Strategic consumer behavior in online hotel booking. Annals of Tourism Research83: 102947.
53.
McKercherBShovalNParkE, et al. (2015) The [limited] impact of weather on tourist behavior in an urban destination. Journal of Travel Research54(4): 442–455.
54.
MuX (2007) Weather, storage, and natural gas price dynamics: fundamentals and volatility. Energy Economics29(1): 46–63.
55.
MuñozCÁlvarezABañosJ (2023) Modelling the effect of weather on tourism: does it vary across seasons?Tourism Geographies25(1): 265–286.
56.
OkuyamaT (2018) Analysis of optimal timing of tourism demand recovery policies from natural disaster using the contingent behavior method. Tourism Management64: 37–54.
57.
O’BrochtaW (2017) International tourism’s impact on regional autonomy: evidence from 2004 EU accession countries. Tourism Economics23(8): 1632–1661.
58.
Pérez-GranjaUAndina-DíazAJiménezJL (2022) Natural disasters and tourism prosocial consumption.
59.
PirazzoliPAUmgiesserG (2006) The projected “MOSE” barriers against flooding in Venice (Italy) and the expected global sea-level rise. Journal of Marine Environmental Engineering8(3): 247–261.
60.
RidderstaatJOduberMCroesR, et al. (2014) Impacts of seasonal patterns of climate on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand: evidence from Aruba. Tourism Management41: 245–256.
61.
RosatoPBreilMGiupponiC, et al. (2017) Assessing the impact of urban improvement on housing values: a hedonic pricing and multi-attribute analysis model for the historic centre of Venice. Buildings7(4): 112.
62.
RossellóJBeckenSSantana-GallegoM (2020) The effects of natural disasters on international tourism: a global analysis. Tourism Management79: 104080.
63.
SalernoGMRussoAP (2022) Venice as a short-term city. Between global trends and local lock-ins. Journal of Sustainable Tourism30(5): 1040–1059.
64.
SchamelG (2012) Weekend vs. midweek stays: modelling hotel room rates in a small market. International Journal of Hospitality Management31(4): 1113–1118.
65.
ShihCNichollsSHolecekD (2009) Impact of weather on downhill ski lift ticket sales. Journal of Travel Research47(3): 359–372.
66.
SilvaTCda Silva NetoPVTabakBM (2023) Tourism and the economy: evidence from Brazil. Current Issues in Tourism26(6): 851–862.
67.
SimonsohnU (2010) Weather to go to college. The Economic Journal120(543): 270–280.
68.
SolerIPGemarGCorreiaMB, et al. (2019) Algarve hotel price determinants: a hedonic pricing model. Tourism Management70: 311–321.
SteigerR (2011) The impact of snow scarcity on ski tourism: an analysis of the record warm season 2006/2007 in Tyrol (Austria). Tourism Review66(3): 4–13.
71.
SteigerRScottDAbeggB, et al. (2019) A critical review of climate change risk for ski tourism. Current Issues in Tourism22(11): 1343–1379.
72.
TeatiniPFerronatoMGambolatiG, et al. (2010) Anthropogenic Venice uplift by seawater pumping into a heterogeneous aquifer system. Water Resources Research46(11).
73.
TosiLTeatiniPStrozziT (2013) Natural versus anthropogenic subsidence of Venice. Scientific reports3(1): 2710.
74.
UmgiesserG (2020) The impact of operating the mobile barriers in Venice (MOSE) under climate change. Journal for Nature Conservation54: 125783.
75.
UmgiesserGBajoMFerrarinC, et al. (2021) The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences21(8): 2679–2704.
VerganoLUmgiesserGNunesPA (2010) An economic assessment of the impacts of the MOSE barriers on Venice port activities. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment15(6): 343–349.
78.
VigliaGDe CanioFStoppaniA, et al. (2021) Adopting revenue management strategies and data sharing to cope with crises. Journal of Business Research137: 336–344.
79.
ZakiK (2022) Implementing dynamic revenue management in hotels during Covid-19: value stream and wavelet coherence perspectives. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management34(5): 1768–1795.
80.
ZekanBÖnderIGunterU (2019) Benchmarking of Airbnb listings: how competitive is the sharing economy sector of European cities?Tourism Economics25(7): 1029–1046.
81.
ZiruliaL (2016) ‘Should I stay or should I go?’: weather forecasts and the economics of ‘short breaks. Tourism Economics22(4): 837–846.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
