Does migration fear affect tourism demand? Evidence from instrumental variable cointegration test

Abstract

Migration and migration-caused concerns and uncertainties have been rising dramatically in recent years at the global level. However, our knowledge of the impact of migration-related concerns on tourism is limited. To address this gap, we estimate the impact of the US migration fears on tourist arrivals from Western Europe to the US using a tourism demand model. The paper employs a new robust cointegration approach with instrumental variables. Our estimates suggest that tourists from Western Europe have a negative and significant long-term response to the fear of migration in the US. The results show that migration-related concerns are constraints on the development of the tourism industry in the US.