Understanding what factors play a role in people’s decisions to travel during a pandemic is important to public health officials and to stakeholders in the travel and tourism industry in the United States (US) and worldwide. This study examines factors influencing people’s decisions to cancel/postpone recreational travel within the US amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Our conceptual framework extends the Expected Utility model, commonly used in economics to model decisions under risk and uncertainty, to incorporate subjective norms and perceived behavioral control from the Theory of Planned Behavior. Our results suggest that risk perceptions, subjective norms, and concerns over transmitting COVID-19 to others play a significant role in the decision to cancel and postpone recreational travel. Results also suggest that perceived behavioral control may be less relevant to travel decisions when traveling involves elevated health risks.
AjzenI (1991) The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes50(2): 179–211.
2.
ArikkattRMMohananSA (2021) Social distancing intention during the COVID-19 pandemic: the theory of planned behavior in Thai cultural context. Indian Journal of Health and Wellbeing12(1): 93–99.
3.
AroARVarttiAMSchreckM, et al. (2009) Willingness to take travel-related health risks—A study among Finnish tourists in Asia during the avian influenza outbreak. International Journal of Behavioral Medicine16(1): 68.
4.
AschwandenDStrickhouserJESeskerAA, et al. (2021) Preventive behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic: associations with perceived behavioral control, attitudes, and subjective norm. Frontiers in Public Health9: 662835.
5.
AssafAScuderiR (2020) COVID-19 and the recovery of the tourism industry. Tourism Economics26(5): 731–733.
6.
BaeSYChangPJ (2020) The effect of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) risk perception on behavioural intention towards ‘untact’ tourism in South Korea during the first wave of the pandemic (March 2020). Current Issues in Tourism24(7): 1017–1035.
7.
BaronJ (1992) The effect of normative beliefs on anticipated emotions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology63(2): 320.
8.
BishASuttonSGolombokS (2000) Predicting uptake of a routine cervical smear test: a comparison of the health belief model and the theory of planned behavior. Psychology and Health15(1): 35–50.
9.
BicchieriC (2005) The Grammar of Society: The Nature and Dynamics of Social Norms. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
10.
BicchieriCXiaoE (2009) Do the right thing: but only if others do so. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making22(2): 191–208.
11.
BorgesJARFolettoLXavierVT (2015) An interdisciplinary framework to study farmers’ decisions on adoption of innovation: insights from expected utility theory and theory of planned behavior. African Journal of Agricultural Research10(29): 2814–2825.
12.
Boto-GarcíaDLeoniV (2021) Exposure to COVID-19 and travel intentions: evidence from Spain. Tourism Economics. DOI: 10.1177/1354816621996554.
13.
BratićMRadivojevićAStojiljkovićN, et al. (2021) Should I stay or should I go? Tourists’ COVID-19 risk perception and vacation behavior shift. Sustainability13(6): 3573.
14.
Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (2020) Timing of state and territorial COVID-19 stay-at-home orders and changes in population movement – United States, March 1- May 31, 2020. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6935a2.htm (accessed 25 January 2020).
15.
ChakravartySRoyJ (2009) Recursive expected utility and the separation of attitudes towards risk and ambiguity: an experimental study. Theory and Decision66(3): 199.
16.
ChampionVLSkinnerCS (2008) The health belief model. Health Behavior and Health Education: Theory, Research, and Practice4: 45–65.
17.
ChuaBLAl-AnsiALeeMJ, et al. (2020) Tourists’ outbound travel behavior in the aftermath of the COVID-19: role of corporate social responsibility, response effort, and health prevention. Journal of Sustainable Tourism29(6): 879–906.
18.
DodgeY (2008) The Concise Encyclopedia of Statistics. Berlin, Germany: Springer Science & Business Media.
19.
FalahuddinAFTerguCTBrolloR, et al. (2021) Post COVID-19 pandemic international travel: does risk perception and stress-level affect future travel intention?Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik24(1): 1–14.
20.
GhaderiZHendersonJC (2013) Japanese tsunami debris and the threat to sustainable tourism in the Hawaiian Islands. Tourism Management Perspectives8: 98–105.
21.
GösslingSScottDHallCM (2020) Pandemics, tourism and global change: a rapid assessment of COVID-19. Journal of Sustainable Tourism29(1): 1–20.
22.
HarrisonGWRutströmEE (2009) Expected utility theory and prospect theory: one wedding and a decent funeral. Experimental Economics12(2): 133.
23.
Higgins-DesbiollesF (2020) Socialising tourism for social and ecological justice after COVID- 19. Tourism Geographies22(3): 610–623.
24.
HoqueAShikhaFAHasanatMW, et al. (2020) The effect of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the tourism industry in China. Asian Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies3(1): 52–58.
25.
HuangXDaiSXuH (2020) Predicting tourists' health risk preventative behaviour and travelling satisfaction in Tibet: combining the theory of planned behaviour and health belief model. Tourism Management Perspectives33: 100589.
26.
JolliffeITCadimaJ (2016) Principal component analysis: a review and recent developments. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences374: 2065.
27.
JonasAMansfeldYPazS, et al. (2011) Determinants of health risk perception among low-risk-taking tourists traveling to developing countries. Journal of Travel Research50(1): 87–99.
28.
JonesCLJensenJDScherrCL, et al. (2015) The health belief model as an explanatory framework in communication research: exploring parallel, serial, and moderated mediation. Journal of Health Communication30(6): 566–576.
29.
JooYSeokHNamY (2020) The moderating effect of social media use on sustainable rural tourism: a theory of planned behavior model. Sustainability12(10): 4095.
30.
KahnemanDTverskyA (1979) Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica47(2): 263–292.
31.
KaushalVSrivastavaS (2020) Hospitality and tourism industry amid COVID-19 pandemic: perspectives on challenges and learnings from India. International Journal of Hospitality Management92: 102707.
32.
LeeCCChenMP (2020) The impact of COVID-19 on the travel and leisure industry returns: some international evidence. Tourism Economics. DOI: 10.1177/1354816620971981.
33.
LeeKHLeeMGunarathneN (2019) Do green awards and certifications matter? Consumers’ perceptions, green behavioral intentions, and economic implications for the hotel industry: a Sri Lankan perspective. Tourism Economics25(4): 593–612.
34.
LiZZhangSLiuX, et al. (2020) Seeing the invisible hand: underlying effects of COVID-19 on tourists’ behavioral patterns. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management18: 100502.
35.
Lopez‐VelezRBayasJM (2007) Spanish travelers to high‐risk areas in the tropics: airport survey of travel health knowledge, attitudes, and practices in vaccination and malaria prevention. Journal of Travel Medicine14(5): 297–305.
36.
MatsumoriKIijimaKKoikeY, et al. (2019) A decision-theoretic model of behavior change. Frontiers in Psychology10: 1042.
37.
MengBChuaBLRyuHB, et al. (2020) Volunteer tourism (V.T.) traveler behavior: merging norm activation model and theory of planned behavior. Journal of Sustainable Tourism28(12): 1947–1969.
NeuburgerLEggerR (2020) Travel risk perception and travel behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020: a case study of the DACH region. Current Issues in Tourism24(7): 1003–1016.
40.
ParadyGTaniguchiATakamiK (2020) Travel behavior changes during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: analyzing the effects of risk perception and social influence on going-out self-restriction. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives7: 100181.
41.
PerićGDramićaninSConićM (2021) The impact of Serbian tourists’ risk perception on their travel intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic. European Journal of Tourism Research27: 2705.
42.
PetrescuDCBranF (2020) The use of smartphone for the search of touristic information. an application of the theory of planned behavior. Economic Computation & Economic Cybernetics Studies & Research54(1): 125–140.
43.
SamitasAAsteriouDPolyzosS, et al. (2018) Terrorist incidents and tourism demand: evidence from Greece. Tourism Management Perspectives25: 23–28.
44.
SchoemakerPJ (1982) The expected utility model: its variants, purposes, evidence and limitations. Journal of Economic Literature20(2): 529–563.
45.
ShamshiripourARahimiEShabanpourR, et al. (2020) How is COVID-19 reshaping activity-travel behavior? Evidence from a comprehensive survey in Chicago. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives7: 100216.
46.
ShimMYouM (2015) Cognitive and affective risk perceptions toward food safety outbreaks: mediating the relation between news use and food consumption intention. Asian Journal of Communication25(1): 48–64.
47.
StarmerC (2000) Developments in non-expected utility theory: the hunt for a descriptive theory of choice under risk. Journal of Economic Literature38(2): 332–382.
48.
TesarJ (2020) How do social norms and expectations about others influence individual behavior?Foundations of Science25(1): 135–150.
49.
Ulker-DemirelECiftciG (2020) A systematic literature review of the theory of planned behavior in tourism, leisure and hospitality management research. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management43: 209–219.
