Although it seems obvious that tourism flows would be adversely affected by terrorism, crime and corruption, not all the empirical evidence supports this view. This article investigates the extent to which insecurity hurts tourism in Africa. We use a new data set consisting of 187 countries, 38 of which are in Africa, for the period 1995–2017. It combines information on the number of tourist arrivals in African countries with information on three types of security risk – terrorism, crime and corruption. While we find no statistically significant evidence that connects terrorism to tourism globally, we do find an effect for tourists travelling to Africa. Crime, too, hurts tourism, but we find no robust relationship between corruption and tourism. Our results emphasize the importance of government expenditure on safety and security to protect this labour-intensive and pro-poor sector.
AdeloyeDCarrCInschA (2019) Domestic tourism and terrorism: an ignored field. Tourism Recreation Research44(3): 382–386.
2.
AnbalaganKLovelockB (2014) The potential for coffee tourism development in Rwanda – neither black nor white. Tourism and Hospitality Research14(1–2): 81–96.
3.
AndersonJEYotovYV (2012) Gold standard gravity. Working Paper 17835, National Bureau of Economic Research.
4.
AsonguSANnannaJBiekpeN, et al. (2019) Contemporary drivers of global tourism: evidence from terrorism and peace factors. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing36(3): 345–357.
5.
AsonguSANwachukwuJC (2017) The impact of terrorism on governance in African countries. World Development99: 253–270.
6.
BalassaB (1965) Trade liberalisation and “revealed” comparative advantage. The Manchester School33(2): 99–123.
7.
BoakyeKA (2012) Tourists’ views on safety and vulnerability: a study of some selected towns in Ghana. Tourism Management33(2): 327–333.
8.
BuigutS (2018) Effect of terrorism on demand for tourism in Kenya: a comparative analysis. Tourism and Hospitality Research18(1): 28–37.
9.
BuigutSAmendahDD (2016) Effect of terrorism on demand for tourism in Kenya. Tourism Economics22(5): 928–938.
10.
BuigutSBraendleUSajeewaniD (2017) Terrorism and travel advisory effects on international tourism. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research22(10): 991–1004.
11.
ChristieIFernandesEMesserliH, et al. (2014) Tourism in Africa: Harnessing Tourism for Growth and Improved Livelihoods. Africa Development Forum. Washington DC: World Bank.
12.
CzaikaMNeumayerE (2020) On the negative impact of time zone differences on international tourism. Current Issues in Tourism23(10): 1181–1185.
13.
De GrootHLindersGRietveldP (2003) The institutional determinants of bilateral trade patterns. Discussion Paper 03-044/3, Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam.
14.
De VitaG (2014) The long-run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows. Tourism Management45: 226–233.
15.
DonaldsonRFerreiraS (2009) (Re-)creating urban destination image: opinions of foreign visitors to South Africa on safety and security?Urban Forum20(1): 1.
16.
Du ToitLFourieJ (2012) Africa’s comparative advantage in travel service exports. Studies in Economics and Econometrics36(1): 1–22.
17.
FallyT (2015) Structural gravity and fixed effects. Journal of International Economics97(1): 76–85.
18.
FletcherJMorakabatiY (2008) Tourism activity, terrorism and political instability within the Commonwealth: the cases of Fiji and Kenya. International Journal of Tourism Research10(6): 537–556.
19.
FourieJRosselló-NadalJSantana-GallegoM (2020) Fatal attraction: how security threats hurt tourism. Journal of Travel Research59(2): 209–219.
20.
FourieJSantana-GallegoM (2013) The determinants of African tourism. Development Southern Africa30(3): 347–366.
21.
GaibulloevKSandlerT (2011) The adverse effect of transnational and domestic terrorism on growth in Africa. Journal of Peace Research48(3): 355–371.
22.
GatsinziJDonaldsonR (2010) Investment challenges in the hotel industry in Kigali, Rwanda: hotel managers’ perspectives. Development Southern Africa27(2): 225–240.
23.
GeorgeRBooyensI (2014) Township tourism demand: tourists’ perceptions of safety and security. Urban Forum25(4): 449–467.
24.
GoldmanOSNeubauer-ShaniM (2017) Does international tourism affect transnational terrorism?Journal of Travel Research56(4): 451–467.
25.
HarbGBassilC (2020) Terrorism and inbound tourism: does immigration have a moderating effect?Tourism Economics26(3): 500–518.
26.
ImbeahNBujdosoZ (2018) Tourist safety and security in the Central Region of Ghana: overview and case study. Ecocycles4(2): 33–45.
27.
JervenM (2013) Poor Numbers: How We Are Misled by African Development Statistics and What to do About It. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
28.
KaynakEMaranduEE (2006) Tourism market potential analysis in Botswana: a Delphi study. Journal of Travel Research45(2): 227–237.
29.
KhadarooJSeetanahB (2008) The role of transport infrastructure in international tourism development: a gravity model approach. Tourism Management29: 831–840.
30.
LarchMWannerJYotovYV, et al. (2019) Currency unions and trade: a PPML re-assessment with high-dimensional fixed effects. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics81(3): 487–510.
31.
LeppAGibsonH (2003) Tourist roles, perceived risk and international tourism. Annals of Tourism Research30(3): 606–624.
32.
LeppAGibsonH (2011) Tourism and World Cup Football amidst perceptions of risk: the case of South Africa. Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism11(3): 286–305.
33.
LeppAGibsonHLaneC (2011) Image and perceived risk: a study of Uganda and its official tourism website. Tourism Management32(3): 675–684.
34.
LiuAPrattS (2017) Tourism’s vulnerability and resilience to terrorism. Tourism Management60: 404–417.
35.
MasindeBBuigutS (2018) Effect of terrorism and travel warning on Kenyan tourism demand. Tourism Analysis23(2): 283–288.
36.
MohamedTZAlseyoufiTS (2018) Evolution and impact of terrorism in the Middle East: implications for Egyptian travel and tourism. International Journal of Religious Tourism and Pilgrimage6(3): 86–106.
37.
MorleyCRossellóJSantana-GallegoM (2014) Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use. Annals of Tourism Research48(C): 1–10.
38.
NaudéWASaaymanA (2005) Determinants of tourist arrivals in Africa: a panel data regression analysis. Tourism Economics11(3): 365–391.
39.
NeumayerE (2004) The impact of political violence on tourism: dynamic cross-national estimation. Journal of Conflict Resolution48(2): 259–281.
40.
NeumayerE (2010) Visa restrictions and bilateral travel. Professional Geographer62(2): 171–181.
41.
NeumayerEPlümperT (2016) Spatial spill-overs from terrorism on tourism: Western victims in Islamic destination countries. Public Choice169(3–4): 195–206.
42.
NovelliMMorganNNibigiraC (2012) Tourism in a post-conflict situation of fragility. Annals of Tourism Research39(3): 1446–1469.
43.
PerryECPotgieterC (2013) Crime and tourism in South Africa. Journal of Human Ecology43(1): 101–111.
44.
SahaSYapG (2014) The moderation effects of political instability and terrorism on tourism development: a cross-country panel analysis. Journal of Travel Research53(4): 509–521.
45.
Santos SilvaJMCTenreyroS (2006) The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics88(4): 641–658.
46.
Santos SilvaJMCTenreyroS (2010) On the existence of the maximum likelihood estimates in Poisson regression. Economics Letters107(2): 310–312
47.
SönmezSFGraefeAR (1998) Influence of terrorism risk on foreign tourism decisions. Annals of Tourism Research25(1): 112–144.
48.
START (2020) Global Terrorism Database. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, University of Maryland. Available at: https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/ (accessed 3 August 2020).
WaqasARossellóJSantana-GallegoM (2020) New insights into the role of personal income on international tourism. Journal of Travel Research. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287520907702.
World Travel and Tourism Council (2020) WTTC Data Gateway. Available at: https://tool.wttc.org (accessed 3 August 2020).
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
