Two processes can be used to summarize the productive-mix of a tourism-led economy: the lack of a significant secondary sector and strong tertiarization. Both developments have had significant consequences for productivity gains that, as shown by empirical research, are key to understanding economic progress. In fact, this productivity has been predominantly concentrated in the industrial sector while services have relied more on factor accumulation. However, this varying economic pattern has permitted long-lasting economic growth in current tourism-led economies. This article develops a theoretical dynamic economic model (a dynamic CGE model) to explain the beginning, development and long-term growth consequences of tourism-led economies.
AcelusFJArozenaP (1999) Measuring sectoral productivity across time and across countries. European Journal of Operational Research1119(2): 254–266.
2.
AcemogluD (2009) Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
3.
ÁlvarezA (2007) Decomposing regional productivity growth using an aggregate production frontier. The Annals of Regional Science41(2): 431–441.
4.
ArmingtonPS (1969) A theory of demand for products distinguished by place of production. IMF Staff Papers16(1): 170–201.
5.
BailyMNHultenCCampbellD, et al. (1992) Productivity dynamics in manufacturing plants. Brookings Papers on Economic Activities. Microeconomics1992(1992): 187–267.
6.
BalassaB (1964) The purchasing power parity doctrine: a reappraisal. Journal of Political Economy72(6): 584–596.
7.
BartelsmanEJDomsM (2000) Understanding productivity: lessons from longitudinal microdata. Journal of Economic Literature38(3): 569–594.
8.
BasuSFernaldJGKimballMS (2006) Are technology improvements contractionary?American Economic Review96(5): 1418–1448.
9.
BaumolWJBowenWG (1966) Performing Arts: The Economic Dilemma. A Study of Problems Common to Theater, Opera, Music and Dance. New York: The Twentieth Century Fund.
10.
BhagwatiJN (1984) Splintering and disembodiment of services and developing nations. World Economy2(7): 133–144.
11.
BrauRLanzaAPigliaruF (2007) How fast are small tourism countries growing? Evidence from the data for 1980–2003. Tourism Economics13(4): 603–614.
12.
CapóJRieraARossellóJ (2007) Dutch disease in tourism economies: evidence from the Balearics and the Canary Islands. Journal of Sustainable Tourism15(6): 615–627.
13.
CherifRHasanovFZhuM (2016) Breaking the Oil Spell: The Gulf Falcons’ Path to Diversification. Washington: International Monetary fund.
14.
CopelandBR (1991) Tourism, welfare and de-industrialization in a small open economy. Economica58(232): 515–529.
15.
FixlerDJSiegelD (1999) Outsourcing and productivity growth in services. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics10(2): 177–194.
16.
GilbertJTowerE (2013) An Introduction to Numerical Simulation for Trade Theory and Policy. Singapore: World Scientific.
17.
GunterUSmeralE (2016) The decline of tourism income elasticities in a global context. Tourism Economics22(3): 466–483.
18.
HavranekTHorvathRIrsovaZ, et al. (2015) Cross-country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution. Journal of International Economics96(1): 100–118.
19.
HertelTW (eds) (1998) Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
20.
HoffmannWG (1968) The Growth of Industrial Economies. Manchester: Manchester University Press.
21.
Inchausti-SintesF (2015) Tourism: economic growth, employment and Dutch disease. Annals of Tourism Research54: 172–189.
22.
InklaarRTimmerMPVan ArkB (2007) Mind the gap! International comparisons of productivity in services and goods production. German Economic Review8(2): 281–307.
23.
JerzmanowskiM (2007) Total factor productivity differences: appropriate technology vs. efficiency. European Economic Review51: 2080–2110.
24.
KoopGOsiewalskiJSteelMF (2000) Modeling the sources of output growth in a panel of countries. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics18(3): 284–299.
25.
LanzaATemplePUrgaG (2003) The implications of tourism specialisation in the long run: an econometric analysis for 13 OECD economies. Tourism Management24(3): 315–321.
26.
LeeCCChangCP (2008) Tourism development and economic growth: a closer look at panels. Tourism Management29(1): 180–192.
27.
MatsuyamaK (1992) Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage and economic growth. Journal of Economic Theory58: 317–334.
28.
MorikawaM (2012) Demand fluctuations and productivity of services industries. Economic Letters117(1): 256–258.
29.
NordhausWD (2001) Productivity Growth and the New Economy. NBER Working Paper, no 8096.
30.
NowakJJSahliM (2007) Coastal tourism and ‘Dutch disease’ in a small islands economy. Tourism Economics13(1): 49–65.
SamuelsonP (1964) Theoretical notes on trade problems. Review of Economics and Statistics46(2): 145–154.
33.
SinclairMTStablerM (1997) The Economics of Tourism. London: Routledge.
34.
SmeralE (2001) Beyond the myth of growth in tourism. In: BiegerTHKellerPP (eds) Tourism Growth and Global Competition. St Gallen: International Association of Scientific Experts in Tourism (AIEST), pp. 3–38.
35.
SmeralE (2003) A structural view of tourism growth. Tourism Economics9(1): 77–93.
36.
SolowRM (1956) A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics70(1): 65–94.
37.
StockmanATesarLL (1995) Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international comovements. American Economic Review85: 168–185.
