War in the campaign? Issue emphasis and issue salience during the 2022 French presidential campaign

Abstract

The outbreak of war in Ukraine 6 weeks before the 2022 French presidential election generated an exogenous geopolitical shock that disrupted the electoral campaign. This study investigates how candidates adapted their issue emphasis strategies in response to this crisis and whether their adjustments aligned with voter issue salience. Using a combination of media content analysis (PolDem dataset) and public opinion survey data (Enquête Electorale Française – EnEF), the study systematically examines issue emphasis for the six major candidates. The findings show that while candidates initially engaged with the Ukraine crisis, their emphasis on the issue declined over time, as economic concerns dominated the campaign agenda. The analyses confirm that mainstream candidates followed public issue salience more closely than challenger candidates, who engaged in selective issue emphasis strategies. Notably, Marine Le Pen, often classified as a challenger, behaved as a mainstream candidate, prioritizing economic issues over her traditionally owned themes such as immigration. These findings contribute to broader debates on issue salience, electoral shocks, and strategic campaign behavior, demonstrating that while external crises can momentarily disrupt campaign agendas, they do not necessarily redefine electoral competition.