United in misperception? How politicians and party electorates assess each other’s policy preferences

Abstract

For representation to work, voters and politicians need to know each other’s policy preferences. While we know that this may not be the case for voters, a growing body of research shows that politicians also regularly misperceive the position of the public or their party’s electorate. However, the two strands of literature are usually not linked, and there is a lack of studies that analyse the mutual (mis)perceptions of citizens and elites. To fill this gap, this paper uses data from three waves of the German Longitudinal Election Study to compare the mutual perceptions of candidates and their party electorates on the left-right scale and on three policy issues. Three findings are noteworthy: First, candidates are only slightly more accurate than voters. Second, in contrast to previous studies, there is no evidence of a conservative bias among politicians. Third, projection plays an important role in both voters’ and candidates' misperceptions. Where both groups think the others are is strongly influenced by their own preferences.