When do candidates attack in election campaigns? Exploring the determinants of negative candidate messages in German televised debates

Abstract

Content analyses of televised debates indicate that candidates often attack each other. Unfortunately, we know very little about when candidates go negative. Furthermore, most research is focusing on the United States. This paper contributes in several ways to our understanding of when candidates choose negative messages. First, we identify some previously unnoticed factors and assign them to three broad categories: a candidate’s (personal and political) profile, the debate format, and the strategic context of a debate. Second, we use a unique data set based on all German televised debates. Third, we run multivariate models to investigate which variables are responsible for the use of attacks. Our results indicate that attacks are very popular. Candidates attack if they belong to the opposition, if they compete at the national level, and if they are behind in the polls. In addition, personality can affect the use of attacks.