Electoral Volatility in Postcommunist Belarus

Abstract

Since the fall of communism nearly a decade ago, a series of important changes have occurred within the party system of Belarus. On the one hand, there is a potential for party system stabilization, given relatively stable party competition, the acceptance of parties as legitimate political actors in the electoral game, and the existence of predictable group loyalties to them. On the other hand, one may still witness intensive vote changing, the tendency for the presidency to strengthen, and a lingering sign of reversion in Belarus's democratization. This necessitates a discussion of the extent to which these two perspectives are contradictory, and how the paradox can be explained. The study examines the nature of instability and its causes, and discusses whether vote changing may be interpreted as `quasi-volatility', which does not primarily imply a radical dealignment in voting.