This article reviews the use of computational simulations that focus on emergence and
complex adaptive systems to model international politics. Computer simulations offer
the advantages of focusing on nonlinear interactive dynamics and enabling
researchers to explore alternative specifications of a global system. However,
current world politics simulations ignore the epistemological and ontological
implications that simulation raises. This criticism of current simulations is
explored alongside current theories and approaches to international relations in
order to highlight inconsistencies in simulations’ modeling of political
behavior. The article concludes with suggestions for the future development of
simulation as a research agenda in world politics.
Alker, Hayward R., Jr
(1985) ‘Global Modeling Alternatives: The First
Twenty Years’, in
Michael Don
Ward (ed.) Theories, Models, and Simulations in International Relations:
Essays in Honor of Harold Guetzkow, pp. 9-37.
Boulder, CO: Westview Press
.
2.
Allison, Graham T.
(1971) The Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile
Crisis.
Boston: Little, Brown
.
3.
Almond, Gabriel A.
and
Stephen J. Genco
(1977)
‘Clouds, Clocks, and the Study of Politics’
, World Politics29(4):
489-522
.
4.
Axelrod, Robert
(1984) The Evolution of Cooperation.
New York: Basic Books
.
5.
Axelrod, Robert
(1997a) ‘Advancing the Art of Simulation in the
Social Sciences’, in
Rosaria Conte
,
Rainer Hegselmann
, and
Pietro Terna
(eds) Simulating Social Phenomena, pp.
21-40.
New York: Springer-Verlag
.
6.
Axelrod, Robert
(1997b) The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of
Competition and Collaboration.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
.
7.
Bak, Per
and
Kan Chen
(1991)
‘Self-Organized Criticality’
, Scientific American264:
46-53
.
8.
Bak, Per
,
Kan Chen
,
José Scheinkman
and
Michael Woodford
(1993)
‘Aggregate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks:
Self-Organized Criticality in a Model of Production and Inventory Dynamics’
, Richerche Economiche47(1):
3-30
.
9.
Bennett, James P.
and
Hayward R. Alker, Jr
(1977) ‘When National Security Policies Bred
Collective Insecurity: The War of the Pacific in a World Politics
Simulation’, in
Karl W. Deutsch
,
Bruno Fritsch
,
Helio Jaguaribe
, and
Andrei Markovits
(eds) Problems in World Modeling: Political and Social
Implications, pp. 215-302.
Cambridge: Ballinger
.
10.
Benson, O.
(1961) ‘A Simple Diplomatic
Game’, in
James N. Rosenau
(ed.) International Politics and Foreign Policy: A Reader in Research
and Theory, pp. 504-511.
New York: Free Press of Glencoe
.
11.
Bernstein, Steven
,
Richard Ned Lebow
,
Janet Gross Stein
and
Steven Weber
(2000)
‘God Gave Physics the Easy Problems: Adapting Social Science to
an Unpredictable World’
, European Journal of International Relations6(1):
43-76
.
12.
Bhaskar, Roy
(1979) The Possibility of Naturalism: A Philosophical
Critique of the Contemporary Human Sciences.
Atlantic Highlands, NJ: Humanities Press
.
13.
Binmore, Ken
(1998)
Review of ‘The Complexity of Cooperation’ by Axelrod
. The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation1(1). http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/1/1/review1.html.
14.
Boettcher, William
(1995)
‘Context, Methods, Numbers and Words: Prospect Theory in
International Relations’
, Journal of Conflict Resolution39(3):
561-583
.
15.
Bremer, Stuart A.
(1985) ‘The GLOBUS Model: History, Structure,
and Illustrative Results’, in
Michael Don Ward
(ed.) Theories, Models, and Simulations in International Relations:
Essays in Honor of Harold Guetzkow, pp. 39-78.
Boulder, CO: Westview Press
.
16.
Bremer, Stuart A.
(1987) The GLOBUS Model: Computer Simulation of Worldwide
Political and Economic Developments.
Frankfurt: Campus/Westview
.
17.
Bremer, Stuart A.
and
Michael Mihalka
(1977) ‘Machiavelli in Machina: Or Politics
among Hexagons’, in
Karl W. Deutsch
,
Bruno Fritsch
,
Helio Jaguaribe
and
Andrei Markovits
(eds) Problems in World Modeling: Political and Social
Implications, pp. 303-337.
Cambridge: Ballinger
.
18.
Brody, Richard A.
(1963) ‘Varieties of Simulations in
International Relations Research’, in
Harold Guetzkow
,
Chadwick F. Alger
,
Richard A. Brody
,
Robert C. Noel
and
Richard D. Snyder
(eds) Simulation in International Relations: Developments for Research
and Teaching, pp. 190-223.
Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall
.
19.
Brooks, Stephen G.
(1999)
‘Globalization of Production and the Changing Benefits of Conquest’
, Journal of Conflict Resolution43(5):
646-670
.
20.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce
,
James D. Morrow
,
Randall M. Siverson
and
Alastair Smith
(1999)
‘An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace’
, American Political Science Review93(4):
791-807
.
21.
Byrne, David
(1997)
‘Complexity Theory and Social Research’
, Social Research Update18
. http://www.soc.surrey.ac.uk/sru/Sru.html.
22.
Cederman, Lars-Erik
(1996) ‘Rerunning History: Counterfactual
Simulation in World Politics’, in
Philip E. Tetlock
and
Aaron Belkin
(eds) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical,
Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives, pp.
247-267.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
.
23.
Cederman, Lars-Erik
(1997) Emergent Actors in World Politics: How States and
Nations Develop and Dissolve.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
.
24.
Cederman, Lars-Erik
(2001)
‘Modeling the Democratic Peace as a Kantian Selection Process’
, Journal of Conflict Resolution45(4):
470-502
.
25.
Cederman, Lars-Erik
(2003)
‘Modeling the Size of Wars: From Billiard Balls to Sandpiles’
, American Political Science Review97(1):
135-150
.
26.
Chernoff, Fred
(2002)
‘Scientific Realism as a Meta-Theory of International Relations’
, International Studies Quarterly46(2):
189-207
.
27.
Cusack, Thomas R.
and
Richard J. Stoll
(1990) Exploring Realpolitik: Probing International Relations
with Computer Simulation.
Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers
.
28.
Dawson, Richard E.
(1962) ‘Simulation in the Social
Sciences’, in
Harold Guetzkow
(ed.) Simulation in Social Science: Readings, pp.
1-15.
Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall
.
29.
Fearon, James
(1991)
‘Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science’
, World Politics43:
169-195
.
30.
Fearon, James
(1996) ‘Causes and Counterfactuals in Social
Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical
Processes’ in
Philip E. Tetlock
and
Aaron Belkin
(eds) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical,
Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives, pp.
39-67.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
.
31.
Frieden, Jeffrey
(1991)
‘Invested Interests: The Politics of National Economic Policies
in a World of Global Finance’
, International Organization45(4):
425-451
.
32.
Gourevitch, Peter A.
(1996)
‘Squaring the Circle: The Domestic Sources of International Cooperation’
, International Organization50(2):
349-373
.
33.
Green, Donald Philip
and
Ian Shapiro
(1994) Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory: A Critique of
Applications in Political Science.
New Haven, CT: Yale University Press
.
34.
Guetzkow, Harold
(1963) ‘Structured Programs and their Relation
to Free Activity Within the Inter-Nation Simulation’, in
Harold Guetzkow
,
Chadwick F. Alger
,
Richard A. Brody
,
Robert C. Noel
and
Richard C. Snyder
(eds) Simulation in International Relations: Developments for Research
and Teaching, pp. 103-149.
Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall
.
35.
Guetzkow, Harold
and
Joseph Valadez
(eds) (1981) Simulated International Processes: Theories and
Research in Global Modeling.
Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications
.
36.
Guetzkow, Harold
,
Chadwick F. Alger
,
Richard A. Brody
,
Robert C. Noel
and
Richard C. Snyder
(eds) (1963) Simulation in International Relations:
Developments for Research and Teaching.
Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall
.
37.
Guttieri, Karen
,
Michael D. Wallace
and
Peter Suedfeld
(1995)
‘The Integrative Complexity of Decision Makers in the Cuban
Missile Crisis’
, Journal of Conflict Resolution39(4):
595-621
.
38.
Hermann, Charles F.
and
Margaret G. Hermann
(1985) ‘The Synthetic Role of Decision-Making
Models in Theories of Foreign Policy: Bases for a Computer
Simulation’, in
Michael Don Ward
(ed.) Theories, Models, and Simulations in International Relations:
Essays in Honor of Harold Guetzkow, pp. 223-248.
Boulder, CO: Westview Press
.
39.
Hollis, Martin
(1977) Models of Man: Philosophical Thoughts on Social
Action.
New York: Cambridge University Press
.
40.
Hollist, W. Ladd
(ed.) (1978) Exploring Competitive Arms Processes:
Applications of Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation in Arms Policy
Analysis.
New York: Marcel Dekker
.
41.
Hudson, Valerie
(ed.) (1991) Artificial Intelligence and International
Politics.
Boulder, CO: Westview Press
.
42.
Hughes, Barry B.
(1988)
‘International Futures: History and Status’
, Social Science Computer Review6(1):
43-48
.
43.
Huth, Paul
and
Todd L. Allee
(2002)
‘Domestic Political Accountability and the Escalation and
Settlement of International Disputes,’Journal of Conflict Resolution46(6):
754-790
.
44.
Jacobsen, Chanoch
and
Richard Bronson
(1997) ‘Computer Simulated Empirical Tests of
Social Theory: Lessons from 15 Years’ Experience’,
in
Rosaria Conte
,
Rainer Hegselmann
and
Pietro Terna
(eds) Simulating Social Phenomena, pp.
97-102.
New York: Springer-Verlag
.
45.
Johnson, Paul
(1999)
‘Simulation Modeling in Political Science’
, American Behavioral Scientist42(10):
1509-1530
.
46.
Kaufmann, Chaim D.
and
Robert A. Pape
(1999)
‘Explaining Costly International Moral Action:
Britain’s Sixty Year Campaign against the Atlantic Slave Trade’
, International Organization53(4):
631-668
.
47.
Keohane, Robert O.
(1984) After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World
Political Economy.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
.
48.
King, Gary
,
Robert O. Keohane
and
Sidney Verba
(1994) Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in
Qualitative Research.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
.
49.
Klahr, David
(1966)
‘A Computer Simulation of the Paradox of Voting’
, American Political Science Review60(2):
384-390
.
50.
Kuhn, Thomas S.
(1970) The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, 2nd edn.Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press
.
51.
Lakatos, Imre
(1970)
‘History of Science and its Rational Reconstruction’
, PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of
Science Association1970:
91-136
.
52.
Lane, David A.
(1992) ‘Abstract of: Artificial Worlds and
Economics.’ Santa Fe Institute Working Paper 92-09-048. http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/wpabstract/199209048.
53.
Levy, Jack S.
(1997)
‘Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations’
, International Studies Quarterly41(1):
87-112
.
54.
Lustick, Ian
(2000)
‘Agent-based Modelling of Collective Identity: Testing
Constructivist Theory’
, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation3(1). http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/3/1/1.html.
55.
Marney, J.P.
and
Heather F.E. Tarbert
(2000)
‘Why Do Simulation? Towards a Working Epistemology for
Practitioners of the Dark Arts’
, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation3(4). http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/3/4/4.html.
56.
Marra, Robin F.
,
Charles W. Ostrom
and
Dennis M. Simon
(1990)
‘Foreign Policy and Presidential Popularity’
, Journal of Conflict Resolution34(4):
588-623
.
57.
Milner, Helen
(1988) Resisting Protectionism: Global Industries and the
Politics of International Trade.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
.
58.
Morgenthau, Hans J.
(1978) Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and
Peace, 5th edn.New York: Knopf
.
59.
Nicholson, M.
(1983) The Scientific Analysis of Social Behaviour: A Defence
of Empiricism in Social Science.
London: Frances Pinter
.
60.
Outhwaite, William
(1987) New Philosophies of Social Science: Realism,
Hermeneutics and Critical Theory.
New York: St Martin’s Press
.
61.
Plous, S.
(1987)
‘Perceptual Illusions and Military Realities: Results from a
Computer-simulated Arms Race’
, Journal of Conflict Resolution31(1):
5-33
.
62.
Popper, Karl
(1959) The Logic of Scientific Discovery.
London: Hutchinson
.
63.
Putnam, Robert
(1988)
‘Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-level Games’
, International Organization42(3):
427-460
.
64.
Richards, Diana
(1992)
‘Spatial Correlation Test of Chaotic Dynamics in Political Science’
, American Journal of Political Science36(4):
1047-1069
.
65.
Richardson, Lewis F.
(1948)
‘Variation of the Frequency of Fatal Quarrels with Magnitude’
, Journal of the American Statistical Association43(244):
523-546
.
66.
Riker, William
(1990) ‘Political Science and Rational
Choice’, in
James E. Alt
and
Kenneth A. Shepsle
(eds) Perspectives on Positive Political Economy, pp.
163-181.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
.
67.
Rorty, Richard
(1979) Philosophy and the Mirror of Nature.
Oxford: Blackwell
.
68.
Rosenau, Pauline Marie
(1992) Post-Modernism and the Social Sciences: Insights,
Inroads, and Intrusions.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
.
69.
Russett, Bruce M.
(1993) Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a
Post-Cold War World.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
.
70.
Russett, Bruce M.
and
John Oneal
(2001) Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and
International Organizations.
New York: W.W. Norton and Company
.
71.
Saam, Nicole J.
and
Andreas Harrer
(1999)
‘Simulating Norms, Social Inequality, and Functional Change in
Artificial Societies’
, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation2(1). http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/2/1/2.html.
72.
Sandole, Dennis J.D.
(1999) Capturing the Complexity of Conflict: Dealing with
Violent Ethnic Conflicts of the Post-Cold War Era.
New York: Pinter
.
73.
Saperstein, Alvin M.
(1984)
‘Chaos — a Model for the Outbreak of War’
, Nature309:
303-305
.
74.
Scheinkman, José
and
Michael Woodford
(1994)
‘Complexity in Economic Theory: Self-organized Criticality and
Economic Fluctuations’
, American Economic Review84(2):
417-421
.
75.
Schrodt, Philip A.
(1988a)
‘Artificial Intelligence and Formal Models of International Behavior’
, The American Sociologist19(1):
71-85
.
76.
Schrodt, Philip A.
(1988b)
‘PWORLD: A Precedent-Based Global Simulation’
, Social Science Computer Review6(1):
27-42
.
77.
Sil, Rudra
(2000)
‘The Foundations of Eclecticism: The Epistemological Status of
Agency, Culture, and Structure in Social Theory’
, Journal of Theoretical Politics12(3):
353-387
.
78.
Siverson, Randall M.
and
Harvey Starr
(1991) The Diffusion of War: A Study of Opportunity and
Willingness.
Ann Arbor, MI: The University of Michigan Press
.
79.
Smith, Alastair
(1996)
‘Diversionary Foreign Policy in Democratic Systems’
, International Studies Quarterly40(1):
133-153
.
80.
Smith, Steven
(1996) ‘Positivism and
Beyond’, in
Steven Smith
,
Ken Booth
and
Marysia Zalewski
(eds) International Theory: Positivism and Beyond.
New York: Cambridge University Press
.
81.
Stoll, Richard J.
(1985) ‘Simulation Government Behavior During
Disputes’, in
Michael Don Ward
(ed.) Theories, Models, and Simulations in International Relations:
Essays in Honor of Harold Guetzkow, pp. 510-519.
Boulder, CO: Westview Press
.
82.
Sylvan, Donald A.
,
Ashok Goel
and
B. Chandrasekran
(1990)
‘Analyzing Political Decision Making from an Information
Processing Perspective: JESSE’
, Journal of Political Science34(1):
74-123
.
83.
Taber, Charles S.
(1992)
‘POLI: An Expert System Model of US Foreign Policy Belief Systems’
, American Political Science Review86(4):
888-904
.
84.
Taber, Charles S.
and
Richard J. Timpone
(1994)
‘The Policy Arguer: The Architecture of an Expert System’
, Social Science Computer Review12(1):
1-25
.
85.
Taber, Charles S.
and
Richard J. Timpone
(1996a)
‘Beyond Simplicity: Focused Realism and Computational Modeling in
International Relations’
, Mershon International Studies Review40(1):
41-79
.
86.
Taber, Charles S.
and
Richard J. Timpone
(1996b) Computational Modeling.
Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications
.
87.
Timpone, Richard J.
and
Charles S. Taber
(1998)
‘Analytic and Algorithmic Analyses of Condorcet’s
Paradox — Variations on a Classical Theme’
, Social Science Computer Review16(1):
72-95
.
88.
Troitzsch, Klaus G.
(1997) ‘Social Science Simulation: Origins,
Prospects, Purposes’, in
Rosaria Conte
,
Rainer Hegselmann
and
Pietro Terna
(eds) Simulating Social Phenomena, pp.
41-54.
New York: Springer-Verlag
.
89.
Walt, Steven
(1987) The Origins of Alliances.
Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press
.
90.
Walt, Steven
(1999)
‘Rigor or Rigor Mortis: Rational Choice and Security Studies’
, International Security23(4):
5-48
.
91.
Waltz, Kenneth
(1979) Theory of International Politics.
New York: McGraw-Hill
.
92.
Waltz, Kenneth
(1959/2001) Man, the State, and War: A Theoretical
Analysis.
New York: Columbia University Press
.
93.
Wendt, Alexander
(1999) Social Theory of International Politics.
New York: Cambridge University Press
.
94.
Zambelli, Stephano
(1997) ‘Macroeconomic Interdependence and
Frequency Locking,’ in
Rosaria Conte
,
Rainer Hegselmann
and
Pietro Terno
(eds) Simulating Social Phenomena, pp.
294-303.
New York: Springer-Verlag
.
