Abstract
In 1994. the former Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics undertook a major study for the Australian government on likely developments in online services over the decade to 2005. At the time, there was a wide level of industry ‘hype’ about the imminent arrival of broadband services to the home. It was also a crrcial time for the Australian government in formulating a range of policies—to encourage competition in the newly opening telecommunications market, to help bring to birth the new pay TV industry and to set the scene for mobile telephony. The CFP provided an economic analysis of these new technologies and the directions in which they might be heading. This paper assesses the extent to which the government research body ‘got it right’ and analyses why it was successful and where it missed the mark. Some of the reasons for the successes and failures illustrate the potential for analytical research to guide governments in their policy formulation.
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