When Victims Don’t Call: Police-Cited Nonreporting in the NCVS,1992–2023

Abstract

American police are often described as experiencing a public confidence crisis that affects police-civilian relationships and community safety. Erosion is sometimes ascribed to a de-policing effect, wherein negative public scrutiny limits police proactivity. However, if the public exhibits a negative attitude toward police, the public may also avoid contact with law enforcement. This paper examines this possibility by analyzing longitudinal data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to see if periods of negative scrutiny affect the public’s willingness to call police. Findings from an interrupted time series analysis shows crime reporting rates stayed constant over the last 30 years. But, starting in the mid-2000s, people are twice as likely to cite the police as the most important reason for not reporting a crime, predating prominent negative scrutiny events. Additional analyses show substantive changes across other demographics. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.