Does Police Proactivity Impact Arrests? Examining Variation Across Individual Officers

Abstract

Police officers and citizens come into contact either when a citizen requests police service or when an officer proactively stops a citizen. One of the most consequential outcomes of these encounters is the decision to arrest. However, little research has examined whether the likelihood of arrest differs by type of citizen contact or across officers. Using mixed-effects regression models that nest 850,000+ police-citizen contacts within 813 Phoenix Police Officers, we examine whether proactive (i.e., officer-initiated) or reactive (i.e., citizen-generated) events are more likely to produce an arrest. Separate models and equivalence tests identify predictors of arrest for each encounter type. Results indicate that officer-initiated events were significantly more likely to result in arrest than citizen-generated calls. Officer-level factors were also stronger predictors of arrest during proactive contacts. As such, future research focused on police proactivity must move beyond event and citizen characteristics to consider the influence of officers themselves.