The 2020 De-Policing: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

In 2020, police activities decreased substantially across large U.S. cities in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the killing of George Floyd by a police officer. Less well understood are when and where the de-policing phenomenon took place. Using NYC panel data from 2017 to 2022 at the census tract level, the study found significant declines in proactive policing, immediately subsequent to the stay-at-home order and/or death of George Floyd. However, all police activities began increasing during the summer of 2020 and ultimately returned to the pre-intervention level and afterwards above it in early 2022. In addition, there is evidence that both the pandemic and BLM protests interact with neighborhood factors in affecting police activities, but not in the same direction. The results are robust across a range of model specifications. Finally, research and policy implications are discussed.

Keywords

COVID-19 de-policing George Floyd law enforcement proactive policing

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Bullinger

L. R.

Carr

J. B.

Packham

(2020). COVID-19 and crime: Effects of stay-at-home orders on domestic violence (NBER Working Paper No. 27667). National Bureau of Economic Research https://www.nber.org/papers/w27667

Camargo

C. D.

(2022). ‘It’s tough shit, basically, that you’re all gonna get it’: UK virus testing and police officer anxieties of contracting COVID-19. Policing and Society, 32(1), 35–51. https://doi.org/10.1080/10439463.2021.1883609

Carson

E. A.

Nadel

Gates

(2022). Special report: Impact of COVID-19 on state and federal prisons, March 2020–February 2021 (NCJ 304500). Bureau of Statistics, U.S. Department of Justice.

Cassell

(2020). Explaining the recent homicide spikes in U.S. cities: The “Minneapolis Effect” and the decline in proactive policing. Federal Sentencing Reporter, 33(1-2), 83–127. https://doi.org/10.1525/fsr.2020.33.1-2.83

Davis

R. C.

Ortiz

C. W.

Henderson

N. J.

Miller

Massie

M. K.

(2002). Turning necessity into virtue: Pittsburgh's experience with a federal consent decree. Vera Institute of Justice.

Demir

Cassino

P. P.

(2022). The effect of COVID-19 on police activities: Traffic stops, arrests, and use of force. Criminal Justice Review, 83(12), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.12968/hmed.2022.0321

Demir

Park

(2022). The effect of COVID-19 on domestic violence and assaults. Criminal Justice Review, 47(4), 445–463. https://doi.org/10.1177/07340168211061160

Galleguillos

Cea

M. S.

Koetzle

Mellow

Arriagada

D. P.

(2022). The COVID-19 pandemic and probation in Chile: Remote supervision and regional differences. International Criminology, 2(1), 70–83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43576-022-00044-3

Godfrey

Richardson

J. C.

Walklate

(2022). The crisis in the courts: Before and beyond Covid. British Journal of Criminology, 62(4), 1036–1053. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjc/azab110

10.

Hicks

Garger

(2020, July 1). City council passes $88.1 billion budget with $1 billion in cuts of NYPD. New York Post. https://nypost.com/2020/07/01/city-councilpasses-budget-with-1-billion-nypd-cut/

11.

Ingram

J. R.

(2007). The effect of neighborhood characteristics on traffic citation practices of the police. Police Quarterly, 10(4), 371–393. https://doi.org/10.1177/1098611107306995

12.

Jennings

W. G.

Perez

N. M.

(2020). The immediate impact of COVID-19 on law enforcement in the United States. American Journal of Criminal Justice, 45(4), 690–701. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-020-09536-2

13.

Jurva

(2021). The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on state and local courts study 2021: A look at remote hearings, legal technology, case backlogs, and access to justice. Thomson Reuters Institute.

14.

Kim

D.-Y.

(2017). Punishment and economic inequality: Estimating short-term and long-term equilibrium relationships. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 28(7), 641–668. https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403415608491

15.

Kim

D.-Y.

(2023). Did de-policing contribute to the 2020 homicide spikes? Police Practice and Research, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/15614263.2023.2235056

16.

Krauth

(2021). NYPD officer retirements increase during COVID pandemic, anti-police protests. ABC7. https://abc7ny.com/7-on-your-side-investigation-nypd-officers-retiring-retirements-police/10693805/

17.

Lum

Maupin

Stoltz

(2022). The supply and demand shifts in policing at the start of the pandemic: A national multi-wave survey of the impacts of covid-19 on American law enforcement. Police Quarterly, 26(4), 495–519. https://doi.org/10.1177/10986111221148217

18.

Mohler

Bertozzi

A. L.

Carter

Short

M. B.

Sledge

Tita

G. E.

Uchida

C. D.

Brantingham

P. J.

(2020). Impact of social distancing during COVID-19 pandemic on crime in Los Angeles and Indianapolis. Journal of Criminal Justice, 68, 101692. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2020.101692

19.

Moise

I. K.

Piquero

A. R.

(2023). Geographic disparities in violent crime during the COVID-19 lockdown in Miami-Dade County, Florida, 2018–2020. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 19(1), 97–106. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-021-09474-x

20.

Morgan

S. L.

Pally

J. A.

(2016). Ferguson, Gray, and Davis: An analysis of recorded crime incidents and arrests in Baltimore city, March 2010 through December 2015. https://socweb.soc.jhu.edu/faculty/morgan/papers/MorganPally2016.pdf

21.

Mourtgos

S. M.

Adams

I. T.

Nix

(2021). Elevated police turnover following the summer of George Floyd protests: A synthetic control study. Criminology & Public Policy, 21(1), 9–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12556

22.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, & Medicine . (2018). Proactive policing: Effects on crime and communities. The National Academies Press.

23.

National Commission on COVID-19 and Criminal Justice . (2020). Experience to action: Reshaping criminal justice after COVID-19. Council on Criminal Justice.

24.

New York City Comptroller . (2020). Comptroller stringer: 311 data spotlights the city’s Discriminatory enforcement of social distancing amid the COVID-19 pandemic. https://comptroller.nyc.gov/newsroom/comptroller-stringer-311-data-spotlights-the-citys-discriminatory-enforcement-of-social-distancing-amid-the-covid-19-pandemic/

25.

New York City Department of Investigation . (2020). Investigation into NYPD response to the George Floyd protests. https://www.nyc.gov/assets/doi/reports/pdf/2020/DOIRpt.NYPD_Reponse._GeorgeFloyd_Protests.12.18.2020.pdf

26.

Nielson

K. R.

Zhang

Ingram

J. R.

(2022). The impact of COVID-19 on police officer activities. Journal of Criminal Justice, 82(4), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2022.101943

27.

Novak

K. J.

Smith

B. W.

Frank

(2003). Strange bedfellows: Civil liability and aggressive policing. Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management, 26(2), 352–368. https://doi.org/10.1108/13639510310475813

28.

Patil

S. V.

Lebel

R. D.

(2019). “I want to serve but the public does not understand:” Prosocial motivation, image discrepancies, and proactivity in public safety. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 154(1), 34–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2019.07.002

29.

Police Executive Research Forum . (2021). Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic: What police learned from one of the most challenging periods of our lives. https://www.policeforum.org/assets/COVIDPandemic.pdf

30.

Pyrooz

D. C.

Decker

S. H.

Wolfe

S. E.

Shjarback

J. A.

(2016). Was there a Ferguson Effect on crime rates in large US cities? Journal of Criminal Justice, 46, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2016.01.001

31.

Roberts

(2020, Feb 17). Police explanation for stop-and-frisk increase doesn’t sit well with civil liberties groups. Bklyner. https://bklyner.com/police-explanation-for-stop-and-frisk-increase-doesnt-sit-well-with-civil-liberties-groups/

32.

Rosenfeld

(2020). Is de-policing the cause of the spike in urban violence? Comment on Cassell. Federal Sentencing Reporter, 33(1-2), 142–143. https://doi.org/10.1525/fsr.2020.33.1-2.142

33.

Rosenfeld

Wallman

(2019). Did de-policing cause the increase in homicide rates? Criminology & Public Policy, 18(1), 51–75. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12414

34.

Rubinstein

Mays

J. C.

(2020, June 30). Nearly $1 billion is shifted from police in budget that pleases no one. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/nyregion/nypd-budget.html

35.

Rushin

Edwards

(2017). De-policing. Cornell Law Review, 102(3), 721–782.

36.

Sandovai

(2020, April 14). New role for New York police: Breaking up crowds at trader Joe’s. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/coronavirus-nypd-social-distancing.html (accessed 31 May 2022).

37.

Schwalbe

C. S. J.

Koetzle

(2021). What the COVID-19 pandemic teaches about the essential practices of community corrections and supervision. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 48(9), 1300–1316. https://doi.org/10.1177/00938548211019073

38.

Schwirtz

Watkins

(2020, June 28). Why the $6 billion N.Y.PD. Is now a target of ‘defund the police. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/28/nyregion/nypd-budget-defund-police.html

39.

Shi

(2009). The limit of oversight in policing: Evidence from the 2001 Cincinnati riot. Journal of Public Economics 93(1), 99–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2008.07.007

40.

Shjarback

J. A.

Pyrooz

D. C.

Wolfe

S. E.

Decker

S. H.

(2017). De-policing and crime in the wake of Ferguson: Racialized changes in the quantity and quality of policing among Missouri police departments. Journal of Criminal Justice, 50, 42–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2017.04.003

41.

Smith

D. A.

(1986). The neighborhood context of police behavior. Crime and Justice, 8, 313–341. https://doi.org/10.1086/449126

42.

Southall

(2020a). Scrutiny of social-Distance policing as 35 of 40 arrested are Black. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/nyregion/nypd-social-distancing-race-coronavirus.html#:∼:text=Andrew_M.,data_provided_by_the_police (accessed 22 September 2022.

43.

Southall

(2020b). Virus’s toll on NY police: 1 in 6 officers is out sick. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/nyregion/coronavirusnypd.html (accessed 31 May 2022.

44.

Spitzer

(1975). Toward a Marxian production of deviance. Social Problems, 22, 641–651.

45.

Stone

Foglesong

T. S.

Cole

C. M.

(2009). Policing Los Angeles under a consent degree: The dynamics of change at the LAPD. Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management, Harvard Kennedy School.

46.

Studenmund

A. H.

(2014). Using econometrics: A practical guide (6th ed.). Pearson.

47.

Vaughn

M. S.

Cooper

T. W.

del Carmen

R. V.

(2001). Assessing legal liabilities in law enforcement: Police chiefs' views. Crime & Delinquency, 47(1), 3–27. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128701047001001

48.

Viglione

Alward

L. M.

Lockwood

Bryson

(2020). Adaptations to COVID-19 in community corrections agencies across the United States. Victims and Offenders, 15(7–8), 1277–1297. https://doi.org/10.1080/15564886.2020.1818153