A unique dataset is analyzed to investigate the effect of a criminal suspect’s prior criminal record on the probability of arrest. Multivariate logistic regression results show that a criminal suspect with a prior criminal record is approximately 29 times more likely than a suspect without a criminal record to be arrested by police. While findings also reveal that Black suspects and Black suspects with a prior criminal record do not have an enhanced proclivity of arrest, Black suspects with a prior criminal record who target White victims are almost three times more apt to be arrested. When juxtaposed with the finding in the baseline model of a substantive relationship between a suspect’s race and the likelihood of arrest absent the control for prior criminal record, our results suggest that any correlation evinced between a criminal suspect’s race and the likelihood of arrest without controlling for the suspect’s prior criminal history may be spurious due to omitted variable bias.
AlpertG.MacdonaldJ.DunhamR. (2005).
Police suspicion and discretionary decision-making during citizen stops. Criminology,
43(2), 407–434.
2.
AndersenS. M.MoskowitzG. B.BlairI. V.NosekB. A. (2007). Automatic thought. In A.W. Kruglanski & E. T. Higgins (Eds.), Social psychology: Handbook of basic principles (pp. 138–175). The Guilford Press.
3.
AndresenM. A.FelsonM. (2009).
The impact of co-offending.The British Journal of Criminology,
50(1), 66–81.
4.
AustinW.ResslerR. W. (2017).
Who gets arrested for marijuana use? The perils of being poor and Black. Applied Economics Letters,
24(4), 211–213.
5.
BeckerH. S. (1963). Outsiders: Studies in the sociology of deviance.
McMillan.
6.
BesemerS.FarringtonD. P.BijleveldC. C. J. H. (2017).
Labeling and intergenerational transmission of crime: The interaction between criminal justice intervention and a convicted parent.PLoS One,
12(3), e0172419. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172419
7.
BodenhausenG. V.MacraeC. N. (1998). Stereotype activation and inhibition. In R. S. Wyer, Jr. (Ed.), Stereotype activation and inhibition: Advances in social cognition (Vol. XI, pp. 1–52). Erlbaum.
8.
BolgerM. A. (2018).
Predicting arrest probability across time: An exploration of competing risk perspectives. Journal of Criminal Justice,
59, 92–109.
9.
BrownR. A. (2005).
Black, White, and unequal: Examining situational determinants of arrest decisions from police–suspect encounters. Criminal Justice Studies,
18(1), 51–68.
10.
CampbellM. A.FrenchS.GendreauP. (2009).
The prediction of violence in adult offenders: A meta-analytic comparison of instruments and methods of assessment. Criminal Justice & Behavior,
36(6), 567–590.
11.
CarlssonC.SarneckiJ. (2015). An introduction to life-course criminology.
Sage.
12.
CernkovichS. A.GiordanoP. C.PughM. D. (1985).
Chronic offenders: The missing cases in self-report delinquency research. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology,
76(3), 705–732.
13.
CharbonneauA.SpencerK.GlaserJ. (2017).
Understanding racial disparities in police use of lethal force: Lessons from fatal police-on-police shootings. Journal of Social Issues,
73(4), 744–767.
14.
CohenJ.CohenP. (1983). Applied multiple regression/correlation analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.).
Lawrence Erlbaum.
15.
CoveyR. D. (2011).
Longitudinal guilt: Repeat offenders, plea bargaining, and the variable standard of proof. Florida Law Review,
63(2), 431–456.
16.
D’AlessioS. J.StolzenbergL. (2003).
Race and the probability of arrest. Social Forces,
81(4), 1381–1397.
17.
DanaD. A. (2001).
Rethinking the puzzle of escalating penalties for repeat offenders. Yale Law Journal,
110(5), 733–783.
18.
DeLisiM. (2005). Career criminals in society.
Sage.
19.
DevineP. G.MonteithM. J. (1999). Automaticity and control in stereotyping. In ChaikenS.TropeY. (Eds.), Dual-process theories in social psychology (pp. 339–360).
Guilford Press.
20.
EitleD.StolzenbergL.D’AlessioS. J. (2005).
Police organizational factors, the racial composition of the police, and the probability of arrest. Justice Quarterly,
22(1), 30–57.
21.
ElliottD. S.AgetonS. S. (1980).
Reconciling race and class differences in self-reported and official estimates of delinquency. American Sociological Review,
45(1), 95–110.
22.
EngelR. S.SmithM. R.CullenF. T. (2012).
Race, place, and drug enforcement: Reconsidering the impact of citizen complaints and crime rates on drug arrests. Criminology & Public Policy,
11(4), 603–635.
23.
FarringtonD. P. (1979). Environmental stress, delinquent behavior, and convictions. In I. G. Sarason & C. D. Spielberger (Eds.), Stress and anxiety (Vol. 6, pp. 93–107). Hemisphere Publishing Corp.
24.
FarringtonD. P. (2001). Predicting adult official and self-reported violence. In G. F. Pinard & L. Pagani (Eds.), Clinical assessment of dangerousness (pp. 66–88). Cambridge University Press.
25.
FazelS.SinghJ. P.DollH.GrannM. (2012).
Use of risk assessment instruments to predict violence and antisocial behaviour in 73 samples involving 24, 827 people: Systematic review and meta-analysis.British Medical Journal,
345. https://www.bmj.com/content/345/bmj.e4692
26.
FlanaganT. J.VaughnM. S. (1996). Public opinion about police abuse of force. In W. A. Geller & H. Toch (Eds.), Police violence: Understanding and controlling police abuse of force (pp. 113–128). Yale University Press.
27.
FlexonJ. L. (2018). Juvenile psychopathy: A primer.
Weston Publishing.
28.
FridellL.LimH. (2016).
Assessing the racial aspects of police force using the implicit and counter-bias perspectives. Journal of Criminal Justice,
44(1), 36–48.
29.
FriedmanR. D. (1991).
Character impeachment evidence: Psycho-bayesian (!?) analysis and a proposed overhaul. UCLA Law Review,
38, 637–697.
30.
FuttermanC. B.HuntC.KalvenJ. (2017).
Youth/police encounters on Chicago’s South Side: Acknowledging the realities. University of Chicago Legal Forum,
51(4), 1079–1178.
31.
GaseL. N.GlennB. A.GomezL. M.KuoT.InkelasM.PonceN. A. (2016).
Understanding racial and ethnic disparities in arrest: The role of individual, home, school, and community characteristics. Race and Social Problems,
8(4), 296–312.
32.
GigerenzerG.SeltenR. (Eds.) (2002). Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox.
MIT Press.
33.
GittelmanS. H.ThomasR. K.LavrakasP. J.LangeV. (2015).
Quota controls in survey research: A test of accuracy and intersource reliability in online samples. Journal of Advertising Research,
55(4), 368–379.
34.
HansonR. K.Morton-BourgonK. E. (2009).
The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders: A meta-analysis of 118 prediction studies. Psychological Assessment,
21(1), 1–21.
35.
HepburnJ. R. (1978).
Race and the decision to arrest: An analysis of warrants issued. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency,
15(1), 54–73.
36.
HuebnerB. M. (2005).
The effect of incarceration on marriage and work over the life course. Justice Quarterly,
22(3), 281–303.
37.
JacobsJ. (2015). The eternal criminal record.
Harvard University Press.
38.
KochelT. R.WilsonD. B.MastrosfskiS. D. (2011).
Effect of a suspect race on officers’ arrest decisions. Criminology,
49(2), 473–512.
39.
LeasureP.MartinT. (2017).
Criminal records and housing: An experimental study. Journal of Experimental Criminology,
13(4), 527–535.
40.
LytleD. J. (2014).
The effects of suspect characteristics on arrest: A meta-analysis. Journal of Criminal Justice,
42(6), 589–597.
41.
MacDonaldJ.StokesR. J. (2006).
Race, social capital, and trust in the police. Urban Affairs Review,
41(3), 358–375.
42.
MacDonaldJ.StokesR. J.RidgewayG.RileyK. J. (2007).
Race, neighborhood context, and perceptions of injustice by the police in Cincinnati. Urban Studies,
44(13), 2567–2585.
43.
MassogliaM.RemsterB. (2019).
Linkages between incarceration and health.Public Health Reports,
134(1), 8S–14S.
44.
MbubaJ. M. (2018).
What if the officer were Black or female? The effects of officer race and gender on arrest decision-making. African Journal of Criminology & Justice Studies,
11(1), 95–111.
45.
McCammanM.MowenT. (2018).
Does residency matter? Local residency as a predictor of arrest. Criminal Justice Studies,
31(2), 128–142.
46.
MillerJ. (2014).
Probation supervision and the control of crime opportunities: An empirical assessment. Crime & Delinquency,
60(8), 1235–1257.
47.
MoffittT. E. (1993).
Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy. Psychological Review,
100(4), 674–701.
48.
MonteithM. J.SpicerC. V.ToolmanG. D. (1998).
Consequences of stereotype suppression: Stereotypes on AND not on the rebound. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,
34(4), 355–377.
49.
MorganR. E.OudekerkB. A. (2019). Crime victimization, 2018.
Bureau of Justice Statistics.
50.
MorinR.SteplerR. (2016). The racial confidence gap in police performance.
Pew Research Center.
51.
MostellerR. P. (2009).
The special threat of informants to the innocent who are not innocents: Producing “first drafts,” recording incentives, and taking a fresh look at the evidence. Ohio State Journal of Criminal Law,
6, 519–579.
52.
MourtgosS. M.WiseR. A.PetrosT. (2018).
The consequences of restricting police arrest authority: Less deterrence and more crime. Policing: An International Journal,
41(2), 233–246.
53.
National Academy of Sciences. (2014). The growth of incarceration in the United States: Exploring causes and consequences.
National Academy Press.
54.
National Archive of Criminal Justice Data. (2018, August 17). National incident-based reporting system, 2016: Extract files.
Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor].
55.
O’NealE. N.BeckmanL. O.SpohnC. (2019).
The sexual stratification hypothesis: Is the decision to arrest influenced by the victim/suspect racial/ethnic dyad?Journal of Interpersonal Violence,
34(6), 1287–1310.
56.
PagerD. (2007). Marked: race, crime, and finding work in an era of mass incarceration.
University of Chicago Press.
57.
PetersiliaJ. (1983). Racial disparities in the criminal justice system.
Rand Corporation.
58.
PetersonJ.SommersI. (2010, October 27). Impact of forensic evidence on the criminal justice process in five sites in the United States, 2003–2006. Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (distributor).
59.
PierceM. W.RunyanC. W.BangdiwalaS. I. (2014).
The use of criminal history information in college admissions decisions. Journal of School Violence,
13(4), 359–376.
60.
PiperE. S. (1985).
Violent recidivism and chronicity in the 1958 Philadelphia cohort. Journal of Quantitative Criminology,
1(4), 319–344.
61.
PritikinM. H. (2008).
Is prison increasing crime?Wisconsin Law Review,
6, 1049–1108.
62.
PrzybylskiR. K. (2009). Correctional and sentencing reform for drug offenders: Research findings on selected key issues.
RKC Group.
63.
RiedelM. (2008).
Homicide arrest clearances: A review of the literature. Sociology Compass,
2(4), 1145–1164.
64.
RosenfeldR.JohnsonT. L.WrightR. (2018).
Are college-educated police officers different? A study of stops, searches, and arrests. Criminal Justice Policy Review,
31(2), 206–236.
65.
SampsonR. J.LaubJ. H. (1993). Crime in the making: Pathways and timing points through life.
Harvard University Press.
66.
SchulenbergJ. L. (2015).
Moving beyond arrest and reconceptualizing police discretion: An investigation into the factors affecting conversation, assistance, and criminal charges. Police Quarterly,
18(3), 244–271.
67.
SkeemJ. L.LowenkampC. T. (2016).
Risk, race, & recidivism: Predictive bias and disparate impact. Criminology,
54(4), 680–712.
68.
SkolnickJ. (1994). Justice without trial: Law enforcement in democratic society (3rd ed.).
MacMillan.
69.
SmithD. A.VisherC. A. (1981).
Street-level justice: Situational determinants of police arrest decisions. Social Problems,
29(2), 167–177.
70.
SmithD. A.VisherC. A.DavidsonL. A. (1984).
Equity and discretionary justice: The influence of race on police arrest decisions. Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology,
75(1), 234–249.
71.
SpelmanW. (2000). The limited importance of prison expansion. In A. Blumstein, & J. Wallman (Eds.), The crime drop in America (pp. 97–129). Cambridge University Press.
72.
SpohnC. C. (2000). Thirty years of sentencing reform: The quest for a racially neutral sentencing process. In J. Horney (Ed.), Policies, processes, and decisions of the criminal justice system (Vol. 3, pp. 427–501). National Institute of Justice.
73.
SpohnC. C.GruhlJ.WelchS. (1981–1982).
The effect of race on sentencing: A re-examination of an unsettled question. Law & Society Review,
16(1), 71–88.
74.
SteenS.EngenR. L.GaineyR. R. (2005).
Images of danger and culpability: Racial stereotyping, case processing, and criminal sentencing. Criminology,
43(2), 435–468.
75.
StolzenbergL.D’AlessioS. J. (2004).
Gender differences in the likelihood of arrest. Journal of Criminal Justice,
32(5), 443–454.
76.
StolzenbergL.D’AlessioS. J.EitleD. (2004).
A multilevel test of racial threat theory. Criminology,
42(3), 673–698.
77.
SundtJ.SalisburyE. J.HarmonM. G. (2016).
Is downsizing prisons dangerous? The effect of California’s realignment act on public safety. Criminology & Public Policy,
15(2), 315–341.
78.
TannenbaumF. (1938). Crime and the community.
Ginn.
79.
TascaM.RodriguezN.SpohnC. C.KossM. P. (2013).
Police decision making in sexual assault cases: Predictors of suspect identification and arrest. Journal of Interpersonal Violence,
28(6), 1157–1177.
80.
VisherC. A. (1983).
Gender, police arrest decisions, and notions of chivalry. Criminology,
21(1), 5–28.
81.
WarrM. (1998).
Lifecourse transitions and desistance from crime. Criminology,
36(2), 183–216.
82.
WhiteA. (2019).
Misdemeanor disenfranchisement? The demobilizing effects of brief jail spells on potential voters. American Political Science Review,
113(2), 311–324.
83.
WolfgangM. E.FiglioR. M.SellinT. (1972). Delinquency in a birth cohort.
University of Chicago Press.
84.
YeagerD. S.KrosnickJ. A.ChangL.JavitzH. S.LevenduskyM. S.SimpserA.WangetR. (2011).
Comparing the accuracy of RDD telephone surveys and internet surveys conducted with probability and non-probability samples. Public Opinion Quarterly,
75(4), 709–747.
