Applying Expert Systems Technology to the Implementation of a Forecasting Model in Foodservice

Abstract

The objective of the study was to develop a naive expert system model to replicate the forecast process made by the forecast knowledge expert in a foodservice operation. An expert system for forecasting menu items was developed. The expert system then was tested by the forecast knowledge expert, researcher, and other users to evaluate its user-friendliness and accuracy. Error was computed using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Squared Error (MSE); MAD was reduced from 21.60 to 0.27, and MSE was reduced from 717.86 to 1.07. Percentage of acceptability was 81%. Results of this study indicated that expert systems can be used in the foodservice industry to assist both experts and nonexperts in the forecast process.

Keywords

forecast foodservice expert systems

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Beheshtian-Ardekani

, & Salchenberger

L. M.

(1988). An empirical study of the use of business expert systems. Information and Management, 15(1), 183–190.

Messersmith

A. M.

, & Miller

J. L

(1991). Forecasting in foodservice. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Miller

J. L.

, McCahon

C. S.

, & Bloss

B. K.

(1991). Food production forecasting with simple time series models. Hospitality Research Journal, 14(3), 9–21.

Miller

J. J.

, McCahon

C. S.

, & Miller

J. L.

(1991). Forecasting production demand in school food service. School Food Service Research Review, 15(2), 117–122.

Miller

J. J.

, McCahon

C. S.

, & Miller

J. L.

(1993). Foodservice forecasting: Differences in selection of simple mathematical models based on short-term and long-term data sets. Hospitality Research Journal, 16(2), 95–102.

Miller

J. L.

, & Shanklin

C. W.

(1988). Forecasting menu-item demand in foodservice operations. Journal of the American Dietetic Association, 88(4), 443–449.

Repko

C. J.

, & Miller

J. L.

(1990). Survey of foodservice production forecasting. Journal of the American Dietetic Association, 90(8), 1067–1071.

Weiss

S. M.

, & Kulikowski

C. A.

(1984). A practical guide to designing expert systems. Totowa, NJ: Roowman & Allanheld.