The Cross Effects of Lottery Taxes On Alternative State Tax Revenue

Abstract

This article both theoretically and empirically identifies sizable cross effects of lottery taxes on other sources of state tax revenue. Specifically, those states without income taxes and those with high sales and excise tax rates may lose as much as 23 cents in alternative state revenue for every dollar of lottery revenue they collect. Even though this extreme still implies that the state receives 77 cents more tax revenue than before the lottery was imposed, those states that earmark their lottery dollars likely see significant reductions in their nonlottery revenue sources that need to be accounted for in their budgets. Otherwise, a bonanza in one area of the budget causes a sizable and likely unexpected shortfall elsewhere.