This article examines the effects of the political business cycle on unemployment for
the first quarter of 1951 through the fourth quarter of 1987. The results for the
autoregressive model provide empirical support for the existence of a political
business cycle during Republican administrations. A number of simulations are
presented to illustrate the longer-term effects of the political business cycle on
unemployment for this model and for the 1986 model offered by Allen, Sulock, and
Sabo. These results suggest that the unemployment effects of the electoral cycle are
not only statistically significant, but are also economically significant.
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