This article uses a time series of poverty estimates, corrected for several major deficiencies in the official index, in order to examine the sensitivity of poverty to changes in economic variables. It is found that changes in the “corrected” poverty deficit and poverty rate between 1959 and 1975 were significantly affected by economic growth, unemployment, and social welfare expenditures. Extension of the corrected poverty series through 1983 indicates that poverty has not decreased since 1979 and currently is about equal to its 1975 level.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AaronH. J. (1967) “The foundations of the 'war on poverty' reexamined.”. Amer. Econ. Rev.57 (December): 1229–1240.
2.
AndersonW.H.L. (1964) “Trickle-down: The relationship between economic growth and the extent of poverty among American families.”. Q. J. of Economics78 (November): 511–524.
3.
BeachC. M.MacKinnonJ. G. (1978) “A maximum likelihood procedure for regression with autocorrelated errors.”. Econometrica46 (January): 51–58.
4.
BlinderA. S.EsakiH. Y. (1978) “MacRoeconomic activity and income distribution in the postwar United States.”. Rev. of Economics and Statistics60 (November): 604–609.
5.
BrowningE. K. (1979) “On the distribution of net income: Reply.”. Southern Econ. J.45 (January): 945–959.
6.
BrowningE. K. (1978) “The marginal welfare cost of income redistribution.”. Southern Econ. J.45 (July): 1–17.
7.
BrowningE. K. (1975) Redistribution and the Welfare System. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute.
8.
BrowningE. K.JohnsonW. R. (1979) The Distribution of the Tax Burden. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute.
9.
Congressional Budget Office (1977) Poverty Status of Families Under Alternative Definitions of Income, Background Paper 17. Washington, DC: author.
10.
DanzigerS.HavemanR.PlotnickR. (1981) “How income transfers affect work, savings, and the income distribution: A critical review.”. J. of Econ. Literature19 (September): 975–1028.
11.
DooleyM. D.GottschalkP. (1984) “Earnings inequality among males in the U.S.: Trends and the effect of labor force growth.”. J. of Pol. Economy92 (February): 59–89.
12.
GallawayL. E. (1967) “The foundations of the ‘war on poverty’: Reply.”. Amer. Econ. Rev.52 (December): 1241–1243.
13.
GallawayL. E. (1965) “The foundations of the 'war on poverty.'” Amer. Econ. Rev.55 (March): 122–131.
14.
GordonR. J. (1981) Macroeconomics. Boston: Little, Brown.
15.
GottschalkP. (1982) “Have we already lost the ‘war on poverty?’” (mimeo).
16.
GottschalkP. (1981) “Transfer scenarios and projections of poverty into the 1980s.”. J. of Human Resources16 (Winter): 41–60.
17.
HirschB. T. (1980) “Poverty and economic growth: Has trickle down petered out?”. Econ. Inquiry18 (January): 151–158.
18.
Institute for Research on Poverty (1984) “Poverty in the United States: Where do we stand now?”. Focus7 (Winter): 1–13.
19.
LaysonS. K.SeaksT. G. (1984) “Estimation and testing for functional form in first difference models.”. Rev. of Economics and Statistics66 (May): 338–342.
20.
PaglinM. (1982) “How effective is our multiple-benefit antipoverty program?” in SommersP. M. (ed.) Welfare Reform in America. The Hague: Kluwer-Nijhoff Publishing.
PlotnickR.SkidmoreF. (1975) Progress Against Poverty. New York: Academic.
23.
SeaksT. G.LaysonS. K. (1983) “Box-Cox estimation with standard econometric problems.”. Rev. of Economics and Statistics65 (February): 160–164.
24.
SmeedingT. M. (1982a) “Review of M. Paglin, poverty and transfers in-kind.”. J. of Econ. Literature20 (June): 634–636.
25.
SmeedingT. M. (1982b) Alternative Methods for Valuing Selected In-Kind Transfer Benefits and Measuring Their Effect on Poverty, Technical Report 50. Washington, DC: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
26.
SmeedingT. M. (1979) “On the distribution of net income: Comment.”. Southern Econ. J.45 (January): 923–944.
27.
SmeedingT. M. (1977) “The antipoverty effectiveness of in-kind transfers.”. J. of Human Resources12 (Summer): 360–378.
28.
ThorntonJ. R.AgnelloR. J.LinkC. R. (1978) “Poverty and economic growth: Trickle down peters out.”. Econ. Inquiry16 (July): 385–394.
29.
Economic Report of the President (1984) Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
30.
U.S. Department of Commerce (1976) “Population estimates and projections.” CPR, P-25, 632.
31.
U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (1981) Social Security Bulletin. November 1981 and earlier issues.
