Macroeconomic Determinants of the Vote in Presidential Elections

Abstract

In a 1971 paper Kramer attempted to establish empirically that macroeconomic variables have a significant impact on the vote shares received by Democratic and Republican congressional candidates. He found mixed results, with the growth rate in per capita real income and the inflation rate being important determinants of vote shares, and with the unemployment rate being statistically unimportant. Subsequent studies in this area have also found mixed and some times conflicting results. By using levels of macroeconomic variables rather than rates of change and by examining vote shares in presidential rather than congressional elections, m this paper we were able to detect a consistent and statistically significant relationship between macroeconomic variables and the vote by party in presidential elections.