An Empirical Economic Analysis of Voters' Preferences

Abstract

In this study, 1970 census data are employed to analyze the influence of socioeconomic factors on North Carolina local-option sales tax referenda voting. The effect of different socioeconomic variables on voting was predicted using the behavioral assumption that voters pursued their perceived self-interest. The empirical results yielded positive evidence that voters not only pursue that self-interest, but also that it may be possible to forecast the outcome of voting on economic issues by examining the socioeconomic traits of the citizenry. This knowledge may allow public officials to make economic decisions which are more consistent with public preferences. The results also indicate that it is critical that voters have a substantial flow of accurate information from the mass media.