Local Fiscal Effects of Subsidized Housing

Abstract

Local governments often have been reluctant to permit the operation of housing subsidy programs from fear of adverse impacts on property tax bases, population characteristics, or demands for public services. This study examines the revenue and expenditure impacts of housing subsidies on local governments, estimates nonproperty tax and transfer receipts as a function of population characteristics, and then estimates demand for local government expenditures in toto and in three subclassifications in the same manner. Property tax receipts are estimated from characteristics of the housing stock in subsidy programs. In the case of full immigration, most programs are estimated to generate net fiscal costs based on the population characteristics of residents of subsidized housing in a sample of Maryland counties. If there is no immigration, it is estimated that the local fisc benefits from the additional value of the housing stock with no expenditure offsets. The "critical" immigration rate, which equates net local fiscal costs to zero, appears on the basis of our analysis to be implausibly high for most subsidy programs in most localities.