This paper reports on the application of an econometric forecasting
technique to a state (Hawaii) with a relatively simple revenue structure and
sufficient data to permit the estimation of relationships which determine
the bulk of state revenues. A thirty-equation model which determines
excise, personal income, corporate income, and other state tax revenues is
estimated with quarterly data and used to forecast state revenues for a
single fiscal year.
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References
1.
Almon, S. (1965) "The distributed lag between capital appropriations and expenditures." Econometrica (January).
2.
Norman, M. and R.R. Russell (1970) "A personal income tax simulation model with an application to the state of Hawaii." National Tax J. (December).
3.
U.S. Department of Commerce (1970) Survey of Current Business, July.
