In this article, several specifications of the piecewise-linear segment hazard rate model with exponential distribution are estimated to investigate the effect of the personal tax exemption (PTE) on married women's birth spacing. Using a sample collected from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the estimation results from the hazard rate model confirm that married couples with a high PTE tend to shorten the length of the second and third birth intervals. Furthermore, the hazard rate increases until four years after the preceding birth and then decreases in the case of the third birth, although this is not so for the second birth.
Barmby, Tim A., and Alessandro Cigno .1990. A sequential probability model of fertility patterns. Journal of Population Economics3(1): 31-51.
2.
Becker, Gary S.1960. An economic analysis of fertility. In Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, Gary S. Becker, ed., 403-25. Princeton, NJ : Princeton University Press.
3.
Becker, Gary S., and H. Gregg Lewis.1973. On the interaction between the quantity and quality of children. Journal of Political Economy81(2): S279-88.
4.
Becker, Gary S., and Nigel Tomes.1976. Child endowments and the quantity and quality of children. Journal of Political Economy84(4): S143-62.
5.
Blau, David M., and Philip K. Robins .1989. Fertility, employment, and child-care costs. Demography26(2): 287-99.
6.
Cain, Glen G., and Adriana Weininger .1973. Economic determinants of fertility: Results from cross-sectional aggregate data. Demography10(2): 205-23.
7.
Chang, Ching-Meei.1988. A hazard rate analysis of fertility using duration data from Malaysia. Research in Population Economics6:137-59.
8.
Cigno, Alessandro, and John Ermisch.1989. A microeconomic analysis of the timing of births. European Economic Review33(4): 737-60.
9.
Dickert-Conlin, Stacy, and Amitabh Chandra .1999. Taxes and the timing of births . Journal of Political Economy107(1): 161-77.
10.
Georgellis, Yannis, and Howard J. Wall.1992. The fertility effect of dependent tax exemptions: Estimate for the United States. Applied Economics24(10): 1139-45.
11.
Gohmann, Stephan F., and Robert L. Ohsfeldt .1994. The dependent tax exemption, abortion availability, and U.S. fertility rates. Population Research and Policy Review13(4): 367-81.
12.
Greene, William H.1993. Econometric analysis, 2nd ed. New York: Macmillan.
13.
Happel, Stephen K., John K. Hill, and Stuart A. Low .1984. An economic analysis of the timing of childbirth. Population Studies38(2): 299-311.
14.
Heckman, James J., V. Joseph Hotz, and James R. Walker.1985. New evidence on the timing and spacing of births. American Economic Review75(2): 179-84.
15.
Huang, Jr-Tsung.1998a. Family income tax: The effect on the timing of births. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Department of Economics, University of Washington, Seattle.
16.
Huang, Jr-Tsung.1998b. The earned income tax credit and the decisions regarding births in the United States. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Department of Economics, University of Washington, Seattle.
17.
Huang, Jr-Tsung.2002. Personal tax exemption: The effect on fertility in Taiwan . Developing Economies40(1): 32-48.
18.
Kravdal, Oystein.1994. The importance of economic activity, economic potential and economic resources for the timing of first births in Norway. Population Studies48(2): 249-67.
19.
Maxwell, Nan L.1991. Individual and aggregate influences on the age at first birth. Population Research and Policy Review10(1): 27-46.
20.
Mocan, Naci H.1990. Business cycles and fertility dynamics in the United States: A vector autoregressive model. Journal of Population Economics3(2): 125-46.
21.
Newman, John L., and Charles E. McCulloch .1984. A hazard rate approach to the timing of births. Econometrica52(4): 939-61.
22.
Razin, Aaasf.1980. Number, spacing and quality of children: A micro-economic viewpoint. Research in Population Economics2:279-93.
23.
Rodríguez, Germán, John Hobcraft, John McDonald, Jane Menken, and James Trussell.1984. A comparative analysis of determinants of birth intervals. World Fertility Survey Comparative Studies Series. Voorburg, the Netherlands: International Statistical Institute.
24.
Teachman, Jay D., and Paul T. Schollaert .1989. Gender of children and birth timing. Demography26(3): 411-23.
25.
Trussell, James, and David E. Bloom .1983. Estimating the co-variates of age at marriage and first birth. Population Studies37(3): 403-16.
26.
Trussell, James, Linda G. Martin, Robert Feldman, James A. Palmore, Mercedes Concepcion, and Datin Noor Laily Bt. Dato' Abu Bakar. 1985. Determinants of birth-interval length in the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia: A hazard-model analysis. Demography22(2): 145-68
27.
Whittington, Leslie A.1992. Tax and family: The impact of the tax exemption for dependents on marital fertility. Demography29(2): 215-26.
28.
Whittington, Leslie A.1993. State income tax policy and family size: Fertility and the dependency exemption. Public Finance Quarterly21(4): 378-98.
29.
Whittington, Leslie A., James Alm, and Elizabeth H. Peters .1990. Fertility and the personal exemption: Implicit pronatalist policy in the United States. American Economic Review80(3): 545-56.
