Assessment of Key Risks Affecting Investment Capital Performance in Vietnam’s BOT-Tolled Highway Projects

Abstract

Highway transportation projects rely heavily on state funding, posing challenges for infrastructure development. Many countries, especially developing ones, have introduced policies to attract private investment through partnerships to mitigate these issues. However, concerns remain regarding their effectiveness. This study examines how critical risks cause increases in initial investment of Build-Operate-Transfer tolled highway projects in Vietnam. Twenty-five risk factors were identified through a literature review and expert opinion. Data was collected via a five-point scale questionnaire and analyzed using Cronbach’s alpha, t-tests, factor analysis, and fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE). Results highlighted that payment procedure, state policy, and legal issues significantly impact the project’s investment capital performance. Seven principal components were extracted from the original factors, explaining 57.3% of the total variance. The FSE model rated the risk impact at 3.6 out of 5, counting for 72%. These findings provide valuable insights for enhancing the overall investment performance of BOT-tolled highway projects.

Keywords

fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE)investment capital performance public-private Partnership (PPP)risk analysis tolled highway projects

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