The Boy Who Cried Wolf? Media Messaging and Traveler Responses to “Carmageddon” in Los Angeles

Abstract

One of the most heavily traveled freeways in the United States closed for construction over weekends in 2011 and 2012. Some public officials publicized the closures by appealing to civic pride whereas others threatened nightmarish delays they dubbed “Carmageddon.” In 2011, contrary to many media predictions, traffic flowed freely at volumes far below normal levels. Our analysis finds that travelers did not switch routes, modes, or trip timing, but instead forewent thousands of trips. Travel behavior changes were far more modest and mixed during the second closure in 2012. Although the lack of traffic problems surprised many public officials, we find traveler responses to both events congruent with past research. Traveler responses to the first event were more dramatic but short-lived, while more modest but durable responses to the second event suggest that travelers learned from, and were perhaps jaded by, the histrionics surrounding the first closure.