Preelection Polls and Issue Knowledge in the 1996 U.S. Presidential Election

Abstract

Many media leaders and some survey researchers in the United States have begun to question whether preelection polls to determine the relative standings of candidates have any useful purpose. Some even say that such polls harm the democratic process. Their arguments follow an attention-displacement model in which public attention paid to polls reduces the amount of attention available for substantive issues. The counterargument proposes a catalytic model in which polls ignite interest in a campaign and lead voters to consider the issues that account for the standings. We used a panel design in a twenty-market sample to test for poll knowledge and issue knowledge in August and November 1996. We found that poll knowledge in August had a small, positive, and decidedly significant effect on issue knowledge in November. The effect persists after age, education, prior issue knowledge, and interest in the election are held constant. Therefore, catalysis appears to be the stronger of the two competing models.

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