Predictive Validity of Tools for Assessing Recidivism Risk in Men Convicted of Sex Offending: Static-99R,Static-2002R and BARR-2002R

Abstract

Recidivism risk assessment is crucial for effective case management of men convicted of sex offending. The use of empirical actuarial risk tools has become routine in the field. However, the development of actuarial risk scales for assessing general, violent and/or sexual recidivism in these men is ongoing: The Static-99 led to the Static-99R and the Static-2002R, and the BARR-2002R emerged to assess violent recidivism risk. A study was undertaken to evaluate and compare the inter-rater and predictive validity of the Static-99R, the Static-2002R, and the BARR-2002R in a sample of 328 men convicted of sex offending released from prison in French Belgium. When the instruments were considered integrally, the two versions of the Static—the Static-99R and the Static-2002R—proved better at predicting sexual recidivism and the BARR-2002R was better at predicting violent recidivism. And, the predictive and incremental predictive validity of the factor structure identified by Brouillette-Alarie et al. (2016) was examined. Results proved consistent in that the Youthful stranger aggression and General criminality factors were better at predicting general recidivism and violent non-sexual recidivism while the Persistence/paraphilia factor was better at predicting sexual recidivism.