The use of Static tools (Static-99, Static-99R, Static-2002, and Static-2002R) in risk decision making involving sexual offenders is widespread internationally. This study compared the predictive accuracy and incremental validity of four Static risk measures in a sample of 621 Australian sexual offenders. Results indicated that approximately 45% of the sample recidivated (with 18.8% committing sexual offenses). All of the Static measures investigated yielded moderate predictive validity for sexual recidivism, which was comparable with other Australian and overseas studies. Area under the curve (AUC) values for the four measures across the 5-, 10-, and 15-year intervals ranged from .67 to .69. All of the Static measures discriminated quite well between low-risk and high-risk sexual offenders but less well for the moderate risk categories. When pitted together, none of the tools accounted for additional variance in sexual recidivism, above and beyond what the other measures accounted for. The overall results provide support for the use of Static measures as a component of risk assessment and decision making with Australian sexual offending populations. The limitations of this study and recommendations for further research are also discussed.
AbbottB. R. (2009). Applicability of the new Static-99 experience tables in sexually violent predator risk assessments. Sex Offender Treatment, 4, 1-24.
2.
AbbottB. R. (2013). The utility of assessing “external risk factors” when selecting Static-99R reference groups. Open Access Journal of Forensic Psychology, 5, 89-118.
3.
AllanA. A.DawsonD.AllanM. M. (2006). Prediction of the risk of male sexual reoffending in Australia. Australian Psychologist, 41, 60-68.
4.
BabchishinK. M.HansonR. K.HelmusL. (2012). Even highly correlated measures can add incrementally to predicting recidivism among sex offenders. Assessment, 19, 442-461.
5.
BarbareeH. E.BlanchardR. (2008). Sexual deviance over the lifespan: Reductions in deviant sexual behaviour in the aging sex offender. In LawsD. R.O’DonohueW. T. (Eds.), Theory, assessment, and treatment (2nd ed., pp. 37-60). New York, NY: Guilford Press.
6.
BarbareeH. E.LangtonC. M.BlanchardR. (2007). Predicting recidivism of sex offenders using the VRAG and SORAG: The contribution of age at release. International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, 6, 29-46.
7.
BarbareeH. E.SetoM. C.LangtonC. M.PeacockE. J. (2001). Evaluating the predictive accuracy of six risk assessment instruments for adult sex offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28, 490-521.
8.
BengtsonS. (2008). Is newer better? A cross-validation of the Static-2002 and the risk matrix 2000 in a Danish sample of sexual offenders. Psychology, Crime & Law, 14, 85-106.
9.
Brouilette-AlarieS.ProulxJ. (2012). Predictive validity of the Static-99R and its dimensions. Journal of Sexual Aggression, 19, 311-328.
10.
CoxD. R. (1972). Regression models and life tables (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 34, 187-220.
11.
DeLongE. R.DeLongD. M.Clarke-PearsonD. L. (1988). Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristics curves: A nonparametric approach. Biometrics, 44, 837-845.
12.
de VogelV.de RuiterC.van BeekD.MeadG. (2004). Predictive validity of the SVR-20- and Static-99 in a Dutch sample of treated sex offenders. Law and Human Behavior, 28, 235-251.
13.
DolanM.DoyleM. (2000). Violence risk prediction: Clinical and actuarial measures and the role of the Psychopathy Checklist. British Journal of Psychiatry, 177, 303-311.
14.
DouglasK. S.CoxD. N.WebsterC. D. (1999). Empirically validated violence risk assessment. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 4, 149-184.
15.
DucroC.PhamT. (2006). Evaluation of the SORAG and the Static-99 on Belgian sex offenders committed to a forensic facility. Sex Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18, 15-26.
16.
FerbyL.WeinrottM. R.BlackshawL. (1989). Sex offender recidivism: A review. Psychological Bulletin, 105, 3-30.
17.
GardnerW.LidzC.W.MulveyE.P.ShawE.C. (1996). Clinical versus actuarial predictions of violence in patients with mental illnesses. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 64(3), 602-609.
18.
GehandE. (1965). A generalized Wilcoxon test for comparing arbitrarily singly-censored samples. Biometrika, 52, 203-223.
19.
HaagA. M. (2005). Recidivism data from 198 offenders detained until their warrant expiry date. From: Do psychological interventions impact on actuarial measures: An analysis of the predictive validity of the Static-99 and Static-2002 on a re-conviction measure of sexual recidivism. Dissertations Abstract International, Section B, 66(08), 4531B. Unpublished raw data.
20.
HansonR. K. (2006). Does Static-99 predict recidivism among older sexual offenders?Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18, 343-355.
21.
HansonR.K.BourgonG.HelmusL.HodgsonS. (2009). The Principles of effective correctional treatment also apply to sexual offenders: A meta-analysis. Criminal Justice and Behaviour, 36(9), 865-891.
22.
HansonR. K.BussiereM. T. (1998). Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66, 348-362.
23.
HansonR. K.HelmusL.ThorntonD. (2009a). Predicting recidivism amongst sexual offenders: A multi-site study of Static-2002. Law and Human Behavior, 34, 198-211.
24.
HansonR. K.Morton-BourgonK. E. (2004). Predictors of sexual recidivism: An updated meta-analysis (Corrections Research User Report 2004-02). Ottawa, Ontario: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada.
25.
HansonR. K.Morton-BourgonK. E. (2009). The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders: A meta-analysis of 118 prediction studies. Psychological Assessment, 21, 1-21.
26.
HansonR. K.ThorntonD. (1999). Static 99: Improving actuarial risk assessments for sex offenders (Vol. 2). Ottawa, Ontario: Solicitor General Canada.
27.
HansonR. K.ThorntonD. (2003). Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Corrections Research User Report 2003-01). Ottawa, Ontario: Solicitor General of Canada.
28.
HarrellF. E. (2001). Regression modeling strategies: With applications to linear models, logistic regression, and survival analysis. New York, NY: Springer.
29.
HarrisJ. R.HansonR. K. (2004). Sex offender recidivism: A simple question (Corrections Research User Report 2004-03). Ottawa, Canada: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada.
30.
HarrisJ.R.PhenixA.HansonR.K.ThorntonD. (2003). Static-99 coding rules: Revised 2003. Ottawa, Ontario: Department of the Solicitor General of Canada.
31.
HelmusL.HansonR. K. (2007). Predictive validity of the Static-99 and Static-2002 for sex offenders on community supervision. Sexual Offender Treatment, 2(2), 1-14.
32.
HelmusL.HansonR.K.ThorntonD. (2009). Reporting Static-99 in light of new research on recidivism norms. Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, The Forum, 21(1), 38-45.
33.
HelmusL.HansonR. K.ThorntonD.BabchishinK. M.HarrisA. J. R. (2012). Absolute recidivism rates predicted by Static-99R and Static-2002R sex offender risk assessment tools vary across samples: A meta-analysis. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 39, 1148-1171.
34.
HelmusL.ThorntonR.HansonK.BabchishinK. M. (2012). Improving the predictive accuracy of Static-99 and Static-2002 with older sex offenders: Revised age weights. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 24, 64-101.
35.
KleinbaumD. G. (2012). Survival analysis: A self-learning text (3rd ed.). New York, NY: Springer.
36.
LangtonC. M.BarbareeH. E.HansenK. T.HarkinsL.PeacockE. J. (2007). Reliability and validity of the Static-2002 among adult sex offenders with reference to treatment status. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 616-640.
37.
LangtonC. M.BarbareeH. E.SetoM. C.HarkinsL.PeacockE. J.HansenK. T. (2007). Actuarial assessment of risk for reoffense among adult sex offenders: Evaluating the predictive accuracy of the Static-2002 and five other instruments. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 37-59.
38.
LeeE. T.DesuM. M.GehanE. A. (1975). A Monte Carlo study of the tower of some two-sample tests. Biometrika, 62, 425-432.
39.
LoomanJ.AbracenJ. (2010). Comparison of measures of risk for sexual recidivism. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 25, 791-807.
40.
MossmanD. (2013). Evaluating risk assessments using receiver operating characteristic analysis rationale advantages insights and limitations. Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 31, 23-39.
41.
MossmanD.SomozaE. (1991). ROC curves, test accuracy, and the description of diagnostic tests. Journal of Neuropsychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences, 3, 330-333.
42.
MullenP. E.OgloffJ. R. P. (2009). Assessing and managing the risk of violence towards others. In GelderM.Lopez-IborJ.AndreasenN.GeddesJ. (Eds.), New Oxford textbook of psychiatry (2nd ed., pp. s3-s7). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
43.
OttoR. K.DouglasK. S. (2010). Handbook of violence risk assessment. New York, NY: Routledge.
44.
PhenixA.DorenD.HelmusL.HansonR. K.ThorntonD. (2009). Coding rules for the Static-2002. Ottawa, Ontario: Public Safety Canada.
PrentkyR. A.LeeA. F.KnightR. A.CerceD. (1997). Recidivism rates among child molesters and rapists: A methodological analysis. Law and Human Behavior, 21, 635-659.
48.
RettenbergerM.Haubner-MacleanT.EherR. (2013). The contribution of age to the Static-99 risk assessment in a population-based prison sample of sexual offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 40, 1413-1433.
49.
RettenbergerM.MatthesA.BoerD. P.EherR. (2010). Prospective actuarial risk assessment: A comparison of five risk assessment instruments in different sexual offender subtypes. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 54, 169-186.
50.
SchemperM. (1992). Cox analysis of survival data with non-proportional hazard functions. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series D (The Statistician), 41, 455-465. doi:10.2307/2349009
51.
SinghJ. P.GrannM.FazelS. (2011). A comparative study of violence risk assessment tools: A systematic review and metaregression analysis of 68 studies involving 25,980 participants. Clinical Psychology Review, 31, 499-513.
52.
SjostedtG.LangstromN. (2001). Actuarial assessment of sex offender recidivism risk: A cross-validation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden. Law and Human Behavior, 25, 629-645.
53.
SmallboneS.RallingsM. (2013). Short-term predictive validity of the Static-99 and Static-99-R for indigenous and nonindigenous Australian sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 25, 302-316.
54.
SpiranovicC. (2012). The Static-99 and Static-99R norms project: Developing norms based on Western Australian sex offenders. Crawley, Western Australia: University of Western Australia.
55.
SreenivasanS.WeinbergerA. F.Cusworth-WalkerS. (2010). Alice in actuarial-land: Through the looking glass of changing Static-99 norms. The Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 38, 400-406.
56.
StalansL. J.HackerR.TalbotM. E. (2010). Comparing non-violent, other-violent, and domestic batterer sex offenders: Predictive accuracy of risk assessments on sexual recidivism. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 37, 613-628.
