Effect of Age-at-Release on Long Term Sexual Re-offense Rates in Civilly Committed Sexual Offenders

Abstract

A cohort of 136 rapists and 115 child molesters civilly committed to a prison in Massachusetts and followed for 25 years (see Prentky, Lee, Knight, & Cerce, 1997) was examined for the effect of age at time of release on sexual recidivism. The present study (1) examined the recidivism rates for each of five age-at-release groups, separately for rapists and child molesters, (2) tested the fit of linear and quadratic models for 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25-year windows using Cox regression analysis, (3) presented the predicted failure rates for rapists (up to five years post-release) and child molesters (out 21 years post-release), and (4) provided a computational formula for estimating the sexual recidivism rate given an individual's age and number of years post-release. For rapists, a linear model extending 5 years best captured our data (LR = 5.62, p < .02). Going out any further than 5 years did not enhance the predictive efficacy of the model. By contrast, a quadratic model extending the full duration of the study (25 years) provided the best fit (LR = 6.30, p < .04) for child molesters. Our data supported the general conclusion that risk of sexual recidivism diminishes as a function of increasing age at time of release for rapists. We found marked differences, however, in the re-offense patterns of rapists and child molesters, with the latter group evidencing a distinct quadratic, rather than linear, pattern. Since these findings derive from a population screened for civil commitment by virtue of their presumptive dangerousness, they may not be generalizable to samples of sex offenders drawn from the general prison population.

Keywords

Sex offender recidivism Age at release Civil commitment

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Barbaree, H.E. , Blanchard, R. , & Langton, C. (2003). The development of sexual aggression through the life span. The effect of age on sexual arousal and recidivism among sex offenders . In R. Prentky, E. Janus, & M. Seto (Eds.), Sexually coercive behavior. Understanding and management (Vol. 989, pp. 59-71). New York: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

Barbaree, H.E. , Langton, C.M. , & Peacock, E.J. (2006). Some relationships between age and actuarial risk: The contribution of age to actuarial prediction. Manuscript in preparation.

Blanchard, R. , & Barbaree, H.E. (2005). Strength of sexual arousal as a function of the age of the sex offender: Comparisons among pedophiles, hebephiles, and teleiophiles. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 17, 441-456.

Blumstein, A. (1995). Youth violence, guns, and the illicit-drug industry . Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 86, 10-36.

Blumstein, A. , Cohen, J. , Roth, J.A. , & Visher, C.A. (1986). Criminal careers and "career- criminals" (Vol. 1). Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

Cantor, J.M. , Blanchard, R. , Christensen, B.K. , Dickey, R. , Klassen, P.E. , Beckstead, A.L. , Blak, T. , & Kuban, M.E. (2004). Intelligence, memory, and handedness in pedophilia . Neuropsychology, 18, 3-14.

Cantor, J.M. , Blanchard, R. , Robichaud, L.K. , & Christensen, B.K. (2005). Quantitative reanalysis of aggregate data on IQ in sexual offenders. Psychological Bulletin, 131, 555-568.

Daly, M. , & Wilson, M. (1988). Homicide. New York: De Gruyter.

Farrington, D.P. (1986). Age and crime. In M. Tonry & N. Morris (Eds.), Crime and justice: An annual review of research (Vol. 7, pp. 189-250). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

10.

Hanson, R.K. (2002). Recidivism and age. Follow-Up data from 4,673 sexual offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 17, 1046-1062.

11.

Hare, R.D. , Forth, A.E. , & Strachan, K.E. (1992). Psychopathy and crime across the life span. In R. V. De Peters , R. J. McMahon , & V. L. Quinsey (Eds.), Aggression and violence throughout the life span (pp. 285-300). Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications.

12.

Hare, R.D. , McPherson, L.M. , & Forth, A.E. (1988). Male psychopaths and their criminal careers. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 56, 710-714.

13.

Harpur, T.J. , & Hare, R.D. (1994). The assessment of psychopathy as a function of age. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 103,604-609.

14.

Hirschi, T. , & Gottfredson, M. (1983). Age and the explanation of crime. American Journal of Sociology, 89, 552-584.

15.

Hunter, J.A. , & Becker, J.V. (1994). The role of deviant sexual arousal in juvenile sexual offending. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 24, 132-149.

16.

Hunter, J.A. , Goodwin, D.W. , & Becker, J.V. (1994). The relationship between phallometrically measured deviant sexual arousal and clinical characteristics in juvenile sexual offenders . Behavior Research and Therapy, 32, 533-538.

17.

Kanazawa, S. (2003). Why productivity fades with age: The crime-genius connection. Journal ofResearch in Personality, 37, 257-272.

18.

Kanazawa, S. , & Still, M.C. (2000). Why men commit crimes (and why they desist). Sociological Theory, 18,434-447.

19.

Klein, J.P. , & Moeschberger, M.L. (1997). Survival analysis: Techniques for censored and truncated data. Springer.

20.

Knight, R.A. , & Sims-Knight, J.E. (2003). The developmental antecedents of sexual coercion against women: Testing alternative hypotheses with structural equation modeling. In R. Prentky, E. Janus, & M. Seto (Eds.), Sexually coercive behavior. Understanding and management (Vol. 989, pp. 72-85). New York: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

21.

Fazel, S. , Sjostedt, G. , & Langstrom, N. (2006). Risk factors for criminal recidivism in older sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18(2), 159-167.

22.

Malamuth, N.M. (2003). Criminal and noncriminal sexual aggressors. Integrating psychopathy in a hierarchical-mediational confluence model. In R. Prentky, E. Janus , & M. Seto (Eds.), Sexually coercive behavior. Understanding and management (Vol. 989, pp. 33-58). New York: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

23.

Packard, R. (2002, February 22). Age & sexual recidivism. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Washington Chapter of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, Blaine, WA.

24.

Prentky, R.A. , Knight, R.A. , & Lee, A.F.S. (1997). Risk factors associated with recidivism among extrafamilial child molesters. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 65(l), 141-139.

25.

Prentky, R.A. , Lee, A.F.S. , Knight, R.A. , & Cerce, D. (1997). Recidivism rates among child molesters and rapists: A methodological analysis. Law and Human Behavior, 21 (6), 635-659.

26.

Robins, L.N. (1966). Deviant children grown up. Baltimore, MD: Williams & Wilkins.

27.

Sampson, R.J. , & Laub, J. (2003). Life-course desisters? Trajectories of crime among delinquent boys followed to age 70. Criminology, 41, 301-339.

28.

Thornton, D. (2006). Age and sexual recidivism: A variable connection . Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18(2), 123-135.

29.

Wolfgang, M.E. , & Ferracuti, F. (1982). The subculture of violence. Towards an integrated theory of criminology. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications.

30.

Wollert, R. (2006). Low base rates limit expert certainty when current actuarials are used to identify sexually violent predators. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 12, 56-85.