This study critically examines the measurement of the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act's key allocation variable, unemployment. The analysis indicates that (1) actual unemployment rates during the study period (September-November 1975) in the research site (City of St. Louis), as measured by three independently conducted surveys, are much higher than the official government estimates; and (2) the methods used by the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to measure state and local unemployment have several weaknesses, some of which apparently lead to an under estimation of unemployment in older central cities.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Deutsch, K.W. (1963) The Nerves of Government. New York: Free Press.
2.
Dommel, P.R. (1974) The Politics of Revenue Sharing. Bloomington: Indiana Univ. Press.
3.
Easton, D. (1965) A Systems Analysis of Political Life. New York: John Wiley.
4.
Green, G.P. (1971) "Measuring total and state insured employment." Monthly Labor Rev.94 (June): 37-48.
5.
Groves, R.M. (1977) "A comparison of national telephone and personal interview surveys: some response and nonresponse differences." Prepared for the annual meeting of the American Association of Public Opinion Researchers, Buck Hill Falls, Pennsylvania , May 19-22.
6.
Hammermesh, D.S. and H. Pitcher (1974) "Economic formulas for manpower revenue-sharing ." Industrial and Labor Relations Rev.27 (July): 511-524.
7.
Johnson, D.F. and J.R. Wetzel (1969) "Effect of the census undercount on labor force estimates." Monthly Labor Rev.92 (March): 3-31.
8.
Klein, D. ( 1970) "Status of men missed in the census." M onthly Labor Rev.93 (March): 25-31.
9.
Levitan, S.A. and J.K. Zickler (1974) The Quest for a Federal Manpower Partnership. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univ. Press.
10.
Lindblom, C.E. (1968) The Policy-Making Process. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
11.
Nathan, R.P. (1975) "Special revenue sharing," in J. D. Sneed and S. A. Waldhorn (eds.) Restructuring the Federal System. New York: Crane, Russak.
12.
---, A.D. Manvel, and S.E. Calkins (1975) Monitoring Revenue Sharing. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
13.
National Academy of Sciences (1972) America's Undercounted People. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
14.
President's Committee to Appraise Employment and Unemployment Statistics (1962) Measuring Employment and Unemployment. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
15.
Shiskin, J. and R.L. Stein (1975) "Problems in measuring unemployment." Monthly Labor Rev.98 (August): 3-10.
16.
Steinbruner, J.D. (1974) The Cybernetic Theory of Decision. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press.
17.
Stenberg, C.W. and D.B. Walker (1976) "The block grant: principles, practice, prognosis ." Prepared for the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, May 2-4.
18.
Thompson, M.M. and G. Shapiro (1973) "The current population survey: an overview." Annals of Economic and Social Measurement2 (April): 105-129.
19.
U.S. Bureau of the Census (1973) Estimates of Coverage of Population by Sex, Race, and Age: Demographic AnalysisWashington, DC: Government Printing Office.
20.
--- ( 1963) The Current Population Survey: A Report on Methodology . Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
21.
U.S. Bureau of Employment Security (1960) Handbook on Estimating Unemployment. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
22.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1975) Employment and Earnings21 (April).
23.
--- ( 1974a) Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment, 1972. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
24.
--- ( 1974b) Handbook of Labor Statistics, 1974. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office .
25.
--- ( 1964) Concepts and Methods Used in Household Statistics on Employment and Unemployment from the Current Population Survey. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
26.
Wetzel, J.R. (1974) "New procedures for estimating unemployment in states and local areas." Statistical Reporter20 (May): 181-184.
27.
--- and M. Ziegler (1974) "Measuring unemployment in states and local areas ." Monthly Labor Rev.97 (June): 38-47.
28.
Wilson, R.C. and E.F. Bowditch, Jr. (1974) General Revenue Sharing Study. Menlo Park, CA: Stanford Research Institute.
