Predicting School Closures in an Era of Austerity: The Case of Chicago

Abstract

What factors do administrators consider when (dis)investing in public facilities? We model school closure decisions in Chicago from 2003 to 2013 with multinomial logit models that estimate the decision to close or “turnaround” schools as a function of building, student, geographic, political, and neighborhood factors during two mayoral administrations. The results from our specifications validate the “official” rationale for closures and turnarounds: Low test scores are associated with closures and turnarounds under Mayor Daley, and underutilization is associated with closures under Mayor Emanuel. However, our findings also reveal some distance between technical-rational decision making and the realities of capital budgeting under austerity. The race of students and proximity to both the Central Business District and charter schools also predicted closures. This suggests multiple, potentially conflicting, interests that school districts balance to serve the needs of school-age populations and taxpayers and also the potential for burdening already vulnerable populations with the negative effects of disinvestment.