Illusions of Media Power: The Third-Person Effect

Abstract

This study assesses the third-person effect and its alternatives, a first-person effect and equal media effects, among a panel of respondents following the prediction of a severe earthquake and after the earthquake failed to materialize. The theoretical perspectives are provided by social comparisons and cognitive adaption theory. The findings indicate that both third-person and first-person effects result from downward social comparisons following from differences in belief in the message, accuracy of information about the predictability of earthquakes, and perception of the beliefs of others about the message. These media effects and their correlates are interpreted as illusions people create to cope with a predicted disaster and later revise to reflect situational contingencies.