Workers in the field of child maltreatment are required to make many complex and far-reaching decisions every week. In this article, two general methods for formulating decision-making policies are presented, along with a discussion of the considerable research literature demonstrating the superior predictive validity of statistical decision models over clinical prediction. A series of illustrative contrasts between the two approaches highlights the desirable mathematical properties of statistical equations as well as the cognitive biases and limitations inherent in unaided human judgment. Reasons for practitioners' adherence to the clinical approach are explored, with specific reference to child welfare decision making. Finally, recommendations are provided for enhancing the efficiency, validity, and ethical defensibility of decision making that seriously impacts the lives of children and their families.
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