Understanding service disposition pathways is critical to provide deeper insight into why certain subgroups of the population are at risk for recurrent Child Protective Services (CPS) involvement and may highlight disparities across groups or geographic areas. Using the Decision-Making Ecology Framework as a lens, the present study examines whether service disposition pathways are influenced by risk assessment, safety concerns, child age, maltreatment type, previous CPS involvement, and/or county-level structural vulnerability. We linked administrative data from New Mexico’s Department of Children, Youth and Families (DCYF) to data from the American Community Survey. Multilevel models examining associations between case (N = 12,960) and county (N = 33) characteristics revealed that both case (age, maltreatment type, risk/safety assessments, previous CPS involvement) and county-level factors (transportation and housing) were associated with service disposition. Additionally, we observed considerable variation at the county level in both the provision of services and the relationship between risk assessment and service provision. By linking different factors of the decision-making process in child welfare cases to intervention strategies, the analysis reveals that the perception of risk can vary based on geographical context resulting in different outcomes for families who have similar risks but different county-level vulnerabilities.
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