Validation of a Simulation Model to Evaluate Crew Size

Abstract

This paper describes the validation of a computer-based model to help identify potential overload situations that would be difficult to anticipate through intuitive assessments of how automation and other factors affect personnel requirements on commercial ships. Development of the Crew Size Evaluation Model (CSEM) is motivated by the pervasive problem of estimating the number of people required to operate a system safely and effectively. CSEM is based on a discrete event simulation of shipboard activities and the utility of its guidance depends on its ability to predict crew work hours and shipboard activities. As with any complex simulation, creating an accurate model requires extensive validation. This paper describes a comprehensive, multi-method validation process, as applied to the validation of CSEM. The multi-method validation addresses: 1) Model scope, 2) Conceptual approach, 3) Model implementation, 4) Model input, 5) Model output. The results of this validation show that CSEM captures the essential elements of shipboard activities and provides a basis for evaluating operational changes, such as crew size, work schedules, maintenance policies, and voyage profiles. Similar multi-method validation approaches should be applied to any complex simulation model.