Application of a Performance Model to Assess Aviator Critical Incidence

Abstract

Previous research by the author had developed nine regression equations to assess student aviator performance at various stages of naval air training. The predictor variables were twelve factors based on error behavior in the first stage of training (primary phase). The purpose of the present research was to extend this model by longitudinally assessing the same 78 pilots into the fleet. Mishap safety records of these pilots were investigated. Of this sample, 20 were observed having an incident anywhere from three months to six years after the primary training phase. Discriminate analysis was performed using a two group separation into critical and non-critical performers. The predictor variables were the same twelve factors and nine stage grades used during model development. A chi-square test was performed on the 2×2 table of predicted versus actual critical/non-critical behavior. The value was highly significant (x² = 12.0, p <.001) with 58 hits, 20 misses and a phi correlation of .394. A paradoxical trend was indicated by the data: those individuals with high grades and low errors were the ones having the major share of mishaps, while the reverse was true of the non-critical performers.