Physiological Biorhythm as a Correlate of Pilot Error Accidents and Incidents

Abstract

Aircraft accidents and incidents attributed to pilot error were hypothesized to have occurred while the pilot was in a critical phase for one or more biorhythms. From screening accident and incident reports for a large military unit, two groups of 25 pilots who had been involved in pilot error accidents and one group of 50 pilots who had been involved in pilot error incidents were identified. 13 of the accident validation group and 12 of the cross validation group were found to have been in a critical physiological phase at the time of accident, or twice the number expected by chance. For the incident group, 20 of the 50 pilots were in a critical physiological phase at the time of incident. Results for all three groups exceeded chance at the .025 level. Results for emotional and intellectual biorhythms, and for double critical phases were found not significant.