Predicting Total System Performance

Abstract

Modeling and simulation (M&S) is a traditional means of analyzing system alternatives. However, most M&S explicitly simulate only the hardware and software components of a system and not the human operators. This study looked at whether explicitly modeling human operators had any impact on estimates of mission performance. A surveillance mission was simulated using: (1) a stand-alone system model; and (2) a human performance model integrated with the system model. These two models gave very different predictions of mission performance. The case is made that human performance modeling is an essential component of M&S when the intent is to understand total system performance.