Toward a Low-Carbon Transport Strategy in Saudi Arabia: Empirical Insights from Climate-Emissions Dynamics

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between climate variables, specifically average temperature and precipitation and transport-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Saudi Arabia, a country undergoing rapid urban and economic development. Using annual data from 1990 to 2022, the study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the short- and long-term impacts of key climate variables average temperature and precipitation alongside economic and demographic indicators such as GDP per capita and urban population percentage. The findings reveal a statistically significant positive relationship between rising temperatures and CO₂ emissions in the transport sector, while precipitation shows a negative but less robust effect. Additionally, economic growth and urbanization are found to contribute to rising emissions due to increased mobility demand. The paper also explores the limitations of Saudi Arabia’s current transportation infrastructure, its vulnerability to temperature and precipitation and the country’s efforts to align its future strategy with Vision 2030. Policy recommendations focus on enhancing public transport systems, adopting low-emission technologies, and strengthening climate resilience in transportation planning. This research contributes to the limited empirical literature on the climate-transport nexus in the Gulf region and offers evidence-based guidance for sustainable mobility in arid environments.