How should we understand the interconnections between environmental change, migration, and conflict in Africa? Should the rise of Islamic terrorism and Boko Haram in northeast Nigeria be directly linked to the drying of Lake Chad? Should cattle raiding in Kenya be seen as a result of drought across East Africa? Does the constrained migration of the pastoral Tuareg in the Sahel causally connect to desertification and their rebellion against governmental forces? Despite the compelling and often persuasive case for directly connecting environmental change to migration and conflict, there is a growing agreement in both the environment-migration and climate-conflict spheres that intervening variables determine if and how environmental change causes population movements and political violence. This article presents a case for migration as an intermediary and bidirectional causal variable. The article argues that close attention needs to be paid to local-level manifestations of conflict and (mal)adaptive forms of migration to understand the potential propensity of environmental change to lead to conflict in Africa.
Adger, W. N., Pulhin, J. M., Barnett, J., Dabelko, G. D., Hovelsrud, G. K., Levy, M., … Vogel, C. H. (2014). Human security. In C. Field (Ed.), Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (pp. 755–791). Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
2.
AfifiT. (2011) Economic or environmental migration? The push factors in Niger. International Migration47: 95–124.
3.
BarriosS.BertinelliL.StroblE. (2006) Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Urban Economics60(3): 357–371.
4.
BatesD. (2002) Environmental refugees? Classifying human migrations caused by environmental change. Population and Environment23(5): 465–477.
5.
BlackR.AdgerN.ArnellN.DerconS.GeddesA.ThomasD. (2011) The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global Environmental Change21: 3–11.
6.
BrunkK.GronenbornD. (2004) Floods, droughts, and migrations: The effects of late Holocene lake level oscillations and climate fluctuations on the settlement and political history in the Chad Basin. In: KringsM.PlatteE. (eds) Living with the lake: Perspectives on history, culture and economy of Lake Chad (Studien zur Kulturkunde)Vol. 121, Cologne, Germany: Rüdiger Köppe Verlag, pp. 101–132.
7.
BuhaugH. (2010) Climate not to blame for African Civil Wars. PNAS107(38): 16477–16482.
CarrE. (2005) Placing the environment in migration: Environment, economy, and power in Ghana’s Central Region. Environment and Planning37: 925–946.
10.
CohenA.GergurichE. L.KraemerB. M.McGlueM. M.McIntyreP. B.RussellJ. M.SwarzenskiP. W. (2016) Climate warming reduces fish production and benthic habitat in Lake Tanganyika, one of the most biodiverse freshwater ecosystems. PNAS113(34): 9563–9568.
EriksenS.NightingaleA.EakinH. (2015) Reframing adaptation: The political nature of climate adaptation. Global Environmental Change35: 523–533.
17.
EzraM.KirosG. E. (2001) Rural out-migration in drought prone areas of Ethiopia: A multilevel analysis. International Migration Review35(3): 749–771.
18.
FjeldeH.von UexkullN. (2012) Climate triggers: Rainfall anomalies, vulnerability and communal conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Political Geography31: 444–453.
19.
FoleyJ.CoeM.SchefferM.WangG. (2003) Regime shifts in the Sahara and Sahel: Interactions between ecological and climatic systems in Northern Africa. Ecosystems6(6): 524–539.
20.
Foresight (2011) Migration and global environmental change: Future challenges and opportunities, London, England: The Government Office for Science.
GleditschN. (2012) Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict. Journal of Peace Research49(1): 3–9.
23.
GoldstoneJ. (2002) Population and security: How demographic change can lead to violent conflict. Journal of International Affairs56(1): 3–22.
24.
HaugI. (2014) Leaving drought and hunger behind: Out-migration from Karamoja, Uganda. In: GemenneF.BrückerP.IonescoD. (eds) The state of environmental migration 2014, Geneva, Switzerland: International Organisation for Migration, pp. 101–116. Retrieved from www.publications.iom.int.
HendrixC.GlaserS. (2007) Trends and triggers: Climate change and civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Political Geography26: 695–715.
27.
HendrixC.SalehyanI. (2012) Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research49(1): 35–50.
28.
Homer-DixonT. (1994) Environmental scarcities and violent conflict: Evidence from cases. International Security19(1): 5–40.
29.
HsiangS.BurkeM.MiguelE. (2013) Quantifying the influence of climate change on human conflict. GeoScience341: 1235367.
30.
HugoG. (1996) Environmental concerns and international migration. International Migration Review3(1): 105–131.
31.
Human Rights Watch (2008) Neighbors in need: Zimbabweans seeking refuge in South Africa, New York, NY: Author.
32.
HunterL.LunaJ.NortonR. (2015) Environmental dimensions of migration. Annual Review of Sociology41(6): 1–21.
33.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014) Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: Regional aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
34.
JalaliM. (2013) Tuareg migration: A critical component of crisis in the Sahel, Washington, DC: Migration Policy Institute.
Jónsson, G. (2010). The environmental factor in migration dynamics – A review of African case studies (Working Paper 21). Oxford, England: International Migration Institute, University of Oxford.
37.
KandjiS. T.VerchotL.MackensenJ. (2006) Climate change and variability in the Sahel region: Impacts and adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector, Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Programme.
38.
KringsT. (1987) Surviving in the periphery of the town – The living conditions of Sahelian drought refugees in Mopti (Republic of Mali). GeoJournal14(1): 63–70.
39.
MamdaniM. (1999) Preliminary thoughts on the Congo crisis. Social Text60: 53–62.
40.
Martin, S. (2014). Current experience with adaptation planning and human mobility. In Warner et al. (Eds.), Integrating human mobility issues within national adaptation plans (United Nations University – Nansen Initiative Joint Policy Brief # 2, Policy Brief No. 9, pp. 18–22). Bonn, Germany: UNU-EHS.
41.
Midgley, G. F., Chapman, R. A., Hewitson, B., Johnston, P., de Wit, M., Ziervogel, G., … Forsyth, G. G. (2005). A status quo, vulnerability and adaptation assessment of the physical and socio-economic effects of climate change in the Western Cape. Report to the Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa (CSIR Report No. ENV-S-C 2005-073). Stellenbosch, South Africa: CSIR Environmentek.
MisagoJ. P. (2009) Violence, labour and the displacement of Zimbabweans in De Doorns, Western Cape, Johannesburg, South Africa: Forced Migration Studies Programme.
44.
MorrisseyJ. (2013) Understanding the relationship between environmental change and migration: The development of an effects framework based on the case of northern Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change23: 1501–1510.
O’LoughlinJ.WitmerF.LinkeA.LaingA.GettelmanA.DudhiaJ. (2012) Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990-2009. PNAS109(45): 18344–18349.
47.
Onuoha, F. (2010). Climate change, population surge and resource overuse in the Lake Chad Area: Implications for human security in the north-east zone of Nigeria. In D. Mwiturubani & J.-A. van Wyk (Eds.), Climate change and natural resources conflicts in Africa (Monograph 170; pp. 23–43). Pretoria, South Africa: Institute for Security Studies.
48.
OsumahO. (2013) Boko Haram insurgency in Northern Nigeria and the vicious cycle of internal insecurity. Small Wars and Insurgencies24(3): 536–560.
49.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics (2013) Turn down the heat, Washington, DC: The World Bank.
50.
PrunierG. (2009) From genocide to continental war, London, England: HURST.
51.
Pye Smith, C. (2012). Increasing rural employment in sub-Saharan Africa (CTA Policy Brief). Wageningen, the Netherlands: Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (ACP-EU).
52.
Rafti, M. (2006). Rwandan Hutu rebels in Congo/Zaïre, 1994-2006: An extra-territorial civil war in a weak state? L’Afrique des Grand Lacs, Annuaire, 2005-2006, 55–83.
53.
RaleighC. (2010) Political marginalization, climate change, and conflict in African Sahel States. International Studies Review12: 69–86.
54.
RaleighC.KnivetonD. (2012) Come rain or shine: An analysis of conflict and climate variability in East Africa. Journal of Peace Research49(1): 51–64.
55.
ReedC. (1998) Guerrillas in the midst. In: ChristopherC. (ed.) African guerrillas, Oxford, England: James Currey, pp. 134–154.
56.
RenaudF.DunO.WarnerK.BogardiJ. (2011) A decision framework for environmentally induced migration. International Migration49: 5–29.
57.
ScheffranJ.MarmerE.SowP. (2011) Migration as a contribution to resilience and innovation in climate adaptation: Social networks and co-development in Northwest Africa. Applied Geography33: 1–9.
58.
SchillingJ.AkunoM.SceffranJ.WeinzierlT. (2014) On raids and relations: Climate change and pastoral conflict in Northern Kenya. In: BronkhoorstS.BobU. (eds) Climate change and conflict: Where to for conflict sensitive climate adaptation in Africa, Berlin: Berliner Wissenschaftsverlag, pp. 241–268.
59.
StrausS. (2012) Wars do end! Changing patterns in political violence in sub-Saharan Africa. African Affairs111(433): 179–201.
60.
ThemnérL.WallensteenP. (2014) Armed conflict, 1946-2013. Journal of Peace Research51(4): 541–554.
61.
TurnerM. (2004) Political ecology and the moral dimensions of “resource conflicts”: The case of farmer–herder conflicts in the Sahel. Political Geography23: 863–889.
62.
United Nations Environment Programme (2009) Protecting the environment during armed conflict, Nairobi, Kenya: Author.
von UexkullN.CroicuM.FjeldeH.BuhaugH. (2016) Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought. PNAS133(44): 12391–12396.
65.
WarnerK.AfifiT.DunO.StalM.SchmidlS. (2008) Human security, climate change, and environmentally induced migration. In: DokosT. (ed.) Climate change: Addressing the impact on human security, Athens, Greece: Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy, pp. 46–67.
YoungC. (1994) The African colonial state in comparative perspective, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
68.
YoungC. (2006) The heart of the African conflict zone: Democratization, ethnicity, civil conflict, and the Great Lakes crisis. Annual Review of Political Science9: 301–328.
