Probabilistic Modeling of Sulfur and Nitrogen Pollution Controls and Their Relations With Income

Abstract

The objective of this article is to evaluate (via modeling) the impact of different pollution control scenarios on the shape of the income-emissions relationship. The simulation of emissions and emission controls was conducted using the Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework, which projects SO ₂ and NO _x emissions from energy consumption and conversion and non-energy sources. The analysis of resulting scenario-, region-, and gas-specific income-emission curves suggests that income alone as a model driver of future emissions cannot adequately capture all plausible future SO ₂ or NO _x emission pathways, or important differences among regions in those trajectories. Future social choices regarding the degree and strategy for environmental protection introduce large uncertainties in future projections and result in differing relationships between income and emissions. The analysis also suggests that the inverted-U shape (hypothesized Environmental Kuznets Curve) is only one of several plausible forms of the future relationship between income and emissions.