Long-Range Time Series of Culture and Society

Abstract

The objective of this article is to describe a method for constructing long-range time series of culture and society extending back at least to 35,000 B .C. The method enables indirect construction of a time series of variables that would not otherwise be observable. Rooted in the use of conditioning to compute probabilities, the method uses two different readings of a conditioning random variable Y to construct a time series ofa random variable X. The object on which observations of Y and X are made is the individual. One reading, P(Y = y), is obtained from the archaeological record. A second reading, P(X = x| Y = y), is obtained from a cross-cultural data base. The familiar unconditional probability formula P(X = x) = ΣP(X = x| Y = y)P(Y = y) (summing over Y) is used. Illustrative time series are constructed, potential uses of such time series are de scribed, and illustrative long-range forecasts are made .